It’s shocking for BRICS and surprising for many others in the fraternity that Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s cornerstone economy, has refrained from joining BRICS just before the BRICS summit to be held on October 22-24 in Kazan, Russia. By not joining BRICS, Kazakhstan retains the flexibility to engage more with Western markets. Its geographical and strategic location at the crossroads of Asia and Europe provides a unique advantage in facilitating trade and collaboration between these two prime and prosperous economies. Initiatives such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) enhanced the connectivity, allowing goods to flow seamlessly from Southeast Asia and China through Kazakhstan to the European economies.
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s spokesperson, Berik Uali, according to the media reports stated that Kazakhstan will not seek BRICS membership now or in the near future. Uali further emphasized Tokayev’s support for the UN as an essential international organization.
The main reason behind such move of Astana is because of its commitment to the United Nations as the foremost international body overseeing global affairs. Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, focused on multilateralism and peace, is evident in its role in the Astana Process for the Syrian civil war and recent negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This positions Kazakhstan as a neutral mediator in conflicts, but a close alignment with BRICS could weaken its ability to mediate effectively.
Kazakhstan is an active participant in several regional organizations that include China and Russia, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA). Additionally, as a founding member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which encompasses Russia and other nations, Kazakhstan has ample opportunities for collaboration on regional security and economic projects.
Can Kazakhstan be a EU member?
Astana has expressed interest in discussing the possibility of eventual EU membership, despite not sharing a geographical connection with Europe. While the EU may not take this proposal seriously, it is clear that the bloc is committed to build a closer relationship with Kazakhstan. The EU will ensure that discussions about membership do not hinder future diplomatic relations, particularly as Kazakhstan’s influence grows in the Central Asian region.
Astana’s Ties with China and Russia
Kazakhstan’s decision not to pursue BRICS membership will not affect its warm ties with either China or Russia. The country maintains robust economic and trade relationships with both giants. Kazakhstan’s relationship with China is rooted in its Communist past and has evolved rapidly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. President Tokayev not only studied in China but also began his career at the Soviet embassy in Beijing, establishing personal and historical connections.
In 2023, trade between Kazakhstan and China reached a record $41 billion, reflecting a 32% increase from the previous year. This growth is fueled by numerous investment initiatives, with 45 joint ventures worth over $14.5 billion established in vital sectors such as energy and infrastructure.
Conversely, Russia remains a crucial trade partner for Kazakhstan, particularly for land-based trade due to their extensive shared border. In the Post-COVID era, Kazakhstan’s trade with Russia has surged. The years 2022 and 2023 marked record levels of economic cooperation, with trade figures hitting $26 billion and $27 billion, respectively. A $6 billion deal was also inked for Russia to construct three coal plants in Kazakhstan, and several Russian firms operate within the country.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Kazakhstan’s foreign relations have shifted significantly. While Kazakhstan does not officially endorse international sanctions against Russia, citing their potential negative impact on its own businesses, the country has complied with these sanctions.
However Kazakh President Tokayev is expected to attend BRICS summit as a guest. Such move of scaling back from joining BRICS – just ahead of the BRICS summit appeared to be setback for Moscow, which aspires to promote BRICS as a coalition representing “the global majority” as part of its strategy to counter Western dominance and resist sanctions imposed due to the war in Ukraine. After Kazakhstan announced its withdrawal from BRICS, Russia’s agricultural safety watchdog temporarily halted imports of tomatoes, flax seeds, peppers, fresh melons, wheat, and lentils from the country.
