Prof. Rajesh Kharat
During her uninterrupted 15-year tenure, Sheikh Hasina became one of the most popular leaders in the South Asian nations, after Shrimati Sirimao Bandarnayke, Shrimati Indira Gandhi and Shrimati Benazir Bhutto. Bangladesh emerged economically stronger than any other South Asian state, a nation culturally akin to the immediate neighbourhood. It served as a model for the aspiring economies of the Global South. Regrettably, despite being a popular prime minister, Hasina failed to adhere to the mandate given to her party, Awami League. Undoubtedly, she disrespected the opposition leaders and put them in jail for their alleged political conspiracies, including former prime minister Begum Khalida Zia. She mercilessly punished those who were involved in the assassination of her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. All judicial decisions in this matter appeared as political decisions to settle the personal vendetta. Moreover, the nexus for corrupt practices between a few political leaders of the Awami League and the government officials has also stained her political regime. For instance, the appointment of then Army Chief General Aziz Ahmed, to whom she gave a free hand, was reportedly involved in corrupt practices, including defence procurements, which also became one of the reasons for anguish among Bangladeshi people. Curbing the social media and internet, which critized her administration. As a result, her tenure practically became dictatorial, and no one could challenge her decisions.
At the same time, when the issue of unemployment was burning among the youth, an announcement of a 30 percent reservation in employment for those with relatives involved in the liberation movement. The political gimmick she employed attracted only those sympathetic to her and her father’s legacy. However, it has triggered unrest among the job-seeking students, who constitute most of Bangladesh’s population. They feared that they would be outcasts and denied opportunities from the nation’s mainstream as their forefathers were not associated with the Bangladesh Liberation Movement.
This outburst among students was fueled by radical Islamic forces, who constantly monitored them and also instigated by political forces who engaged in spreading anti-Indian sentiments for her political proximities with India. The eruption of the present political unrest is not a surprise or a sudden. It has been hatched since her victory in the 2018 elections, in which she came with a ruling majority without the existence of a real opposition party, the Bangladesh National Party. So, the protests against the reservation or quota system in employment are symbolic rather than substantive. Thus, students’ protests became a catalyst for removing Sheikh Hasina from the political scene of Bangladesh, as it was the only motive.
Bangladesh’s geostrategic location in the Indian Ocean compelled the US and China to monitor and observe the political developments, as they both have economic and strategic stakes in Bangladesh. The US expressed serious concerns about the state of democracy in Bangladesh and the conduct of recent general elections. At the same time, China followed the wait-and-watch policy as it has maximum economic and financial stakes in Bangladesh. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China invested considerably in infrastructure development and is one of Bangladesh’s largest trading partners. In addition to this, the political violence in Bangladesh being an Islamic nation is also a concern for the US as well as China. However, none of the countries have expressed openly about it yet, but they are observing the developments in the region.
Concerns for India:
In recent times, except for Bhutan, India’s neighbourhood has been going through political upheavals that disturb the peace and tranquility of the region. For instance, Myanmar’s Military Junta government is worried and keeps itself ready to counter Rohingyas who may attempt to return there after the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. In the Maldives, ministers openly criticised India for India’s military presence.
Nepal has also seen political shifts, with hardliner Mr. K P Oli Sharma returning to power and advocating an ‘India-Out’ slogan. His return to power in Nepal is also a concern for India. Pakistan too is facing economic and political turmoil. The establishment in Pakistan is not losing any opportunity to diminish India in South Asia and incite anti-India sentiments among the people of neighbouring states Bangladesh, Maldives and Nepal. They share immediate borders with India, so it will directly impact India. Given this hostile environment, India must remain vigilant, monitor regional political developments, and respond accordingly.
It appears that the constant violence in Bangladesh, which began a few weeks before to remove Sheikh Hasina from political power, has now deviated from its motive. The rioters, who are anti-Awami League, combined with radical Islamic forces, are on the verge of erasing the historical legacies, cultural symbols, and memories of the Liberation movement. It is a grave concern that the youth of a nation wants to do away with the legacies of the freedom struggle and sacrifices of their freedom fighters and set new narratives which may be probably based on monolithic idea. Though the interim government in Bangladesh is under the supervision of Nobel Laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, the uncertainty of backlash still hangs over the head. Especially the minorities, party workers and bureaucrats, closely associated with the Awami League, are the targets of the protesters. Consequently, the victims may try to cross the Indian borders for refuge and safe sanctuary. The burden of these refugees will affect the economy, society, demography and the political structure of border states like Assam, Tripura, and West Bengal. Therefore, extra efforts must be made to keep a strict vigil on the borders to avoid illegal border-crossings. The burning of the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre in Dhaka signalled that the cultural proximities of Bengali nationalism with India are under challenge and may not work as a cementing factor between India and Bangladesh as it did with the previous government.
The ongoing political crisis in Bangladesh may be an eye-opener to the rest of the South Asian countries as one of the youngest nations in the region has been constantly going through political violence since its independence and the removal of the Head of the State/Government by the uprisings. A feeling of exclusion provoked the youth to be in a rebellious mood against their own country. This serves as a crucial lesson for other South Asian and neighboring Global South nations: they must not overlook the aspirations of their youth or take them for granted. They are principal stakeholders in the Global South’s development in the coming years.
[Rajesh Kharat is Professor and former Chairperson, South Asian Studies, JNU, New Delhi. The opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the stance of COGGS.]
