Perspective

Will Venezuela Overcome Economic Challenges?

  • Dr. Nahem Reyes, Venezuelan Researcher

Venezuela is basically known for its oil and Miss Universe. However, since the middle of the last decade, a major question has arisen: Why and how did Venezuela’s image shift from being so positive to becoming so negative? While it is true that Venezuela – more specifically an area located in the south of the country called the “Orinoco Belt” – is still by far the country with the largest proven oil reserves on planet Earth, that is, more than 300 billion barrels. Despite this, the country, far from developing its economy, contrary and unfortunately the Venezuelan population experiences 80% of critical poverty and since 2016 the country has experienced a massive migration with figures that reach 8 million.

Dr. Nahem Reyes, Author

The starting point of such a colossal crisis, that is, unprecedented in the Americas and a migratory process superior to that of Syria and the entire Arab Spring at the beginning of the last decade, has its origin for some reductionists by trade, in a crisis international politics, that is, the Washington – Caracas confrontation with the imposition of economic sanctions or trade blockades since the end of President Obama’s second term and deepened during the government of Republican President Donald Trump.

However, the source of such colossal and historic destruction—both of the national economy and society—can be traced back to the government of the well-known President Hugo Chávez, who governed Venezuela in times of full oil boom, a kind of oil boom 2.0, when at the beginning of the 20th century when Venezuelan crude oil was priced at over $100 per barrel. This raises the question: How did a leader in the midst of an economic boom lay the groundwork for such a downfall?

Obviously, this was the product of a tragic chain of events, but all of them associated with political-ideological factors and which we will detail below. Hugo Chávez won the December 1998 elections in a context where the two-party representative democracy was exhausted by corruption, rising poverty, a deficit in public services, increasing living costs, and widespread insecurity and violence. In short, a collective rejection of the system, a situation that the former military coup leader capitalized on for his victory at the polls with his diffuse “constituent” proposal.

Once in power, he advanced his campaign promise of a ‘constituent’ assembly, styled after the French model, which later led to a new Constitution approved by a large majority. The new Constitution of 1999 not only brought a change in the name of the country, which went from “Republic of Venezuela” to “Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela”, but it also came with a very broad load of faculties and powers for the Executive Branch. Amen, everything allowed President Chávez to generate a system of nominally separate and independent Public Powers, but in the end, they were all derived from the direct and personal will of Hugo Chávez and to which was added the effort to transform Venezuela into a Cuban-style socialist society.

These two powerful elements intrinsically associated, that is, on the one hand the breakdown of the liberal democratic model in the strict sense and on the other hand, the gradual but systematic implementation of the socialist model, which implied, a sine qua non, the liquidation of the private property as well as the conditions of the capitalist system. Soon, the entire country was subordinated to the will of the President of the Republic and his political party, first the “V Republic Movement” and later the “United Socialist Party of Venezuela” (PSUV), until today.

The business community, the traditional political sectors, the most prestigious universities in the country and intellectuals, rejected such an arbitrary and unconstitutional imposition of socialism, which unleashed an open and constant clash between these sectors and the national government that still had great popular support.

With the second term of Hugo Chávez, in 2008 the president deepened his socialist model, the word “expropriation” became commonplace in the country’s newspapers, Chávez’s administration became increasingly authoritarian, leading to the expulsion of private companies, which either ceased operations or were expropriated.

Then, the second wave of expropriations fell on large Venezuelan industries, which ended simply due to the reduction of production in multiple sectors simultaneously, which inevitably led to hyper-inflation and generalized shortages. The government was quick to blame Yankee imperialism and its local partners.

Already in the midst of this economic crisis, Chávez died in 2013, being succeeded by his dolphin, Nicolás Maduro, whose first term was characterized by the worsening of the crisis and greater repression. Maduro’s situation reached a critical point after the recent elections on July 28, 2024, when the National Electoral Council proclaimed Nicolás Maduro as the winner with 51.2% of the vote, leaving opposition candidate Edmundo González with 44.2%. But the process has been highly questioned, few countries have recognized these results.

Finally, all indications are that Maduro will be sworn in without major challenges on January 10, 2025, but two big unknowns remain: Will Maduro’s government really manage to survive once he is sworn in on January 10? And for how much longer will Venezuela, with such wealth, remain disconnected from the world economy and its population plunged into poverty by this narco-praetorian-neo-communist model? Only the time will answer these questions.

[ The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official stance or editorial position of COGGS.]

 

Will Venezuela Overcome Economic Challenges? Read Post »

How Rupees & Renminbi Driving a Digital Financial Renaissance in Global South?

  • Mohammed Saqib

As digitalization and financial inclusion gain momentum in emerging economies, India and China are attracting more attention as two of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world. This is because they have made remarkable strides in technology and financial services, which render them well-placed to drive change across the Global South. They could transform emerging markets by bridging the digital divide due to a lack of access to finance through cooperation.

Digital Infrastructure

Collaboration between India and China can make a difference in many things, including technological infrastructures, as far as this one aspect is concerned. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has seen large amounts of money being pumped into Asia’s digital infrastructure; similarly, Digital India has shown how nationwide digital strategies can change entire countries. Working together, these two countries could foster quicker access to high-speed broadband networks, 5G systems, etc., for use within the Global South. Consequently, more areas may be linked, breaking down contemporary barriers that impede economic growth from happening faster than it should while ensuring social upliftment. Similarly, other developing countries could emulate such projects if supported by joint ventures between India and China.

 

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Financial Inclusion

India and China developed innovative approaches that can be replicated elsewhere among other developing nations when addressing concerns about financial inclusion. One example is the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) developed by India or Alipay/ WeChat Pay (APWP), two Chinese payment giants that facilitate digital cashless transactions.Also available are Alipay or WeChat Pay-like mobile payments through UPI, allowing over 3 billion monthly bank transfers and a billion users each for Alipay’s and WeChat Pay’s mobile payment platforms.

By creating digital payment systems like India’s UPI or China’s Alipay and WeChat Pay and sharing their fintech innovations and financial education programs, India and China can help third-world countries bypass the usual banking infrastructure process. In such a system, millions of people without bank accounts could participate in the economy. Strong fintech ecosystems like those in India and China can enhance access to finance among developing countries. For instance, with the Jan Dhan Yojana in India, 430 million bank accounts have been opened for poor people who cannot reach banks. Similarly, financial inclusion has improved significantly in Kenya due to the M-Pesa mobile money platform, which serves up to 40 million users. Ant Group of China has developed relevant microcredit solutions, amongst other things, with conditions similar to those in other emerging economies. Therefore, initiatives such as these, supported by collaboration between India and China, should also be adopted by other developing nations.

Digital and Financial Literacy

To make effective use of fintech, digital and financial literacy is important. To develop digital technology and finance skills in the developing economy, India and China could join forces in establishing training programs and educational initiatives. Financial literacy programs launched by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) are an experience many countries can learn from. For example, RBI’s centres for financial literacy teach banking services, savings, and credit facilities, among other things. At the same time, India might share her experience with the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY), which aims to provide skill training to millions of young persons and engage them in such activities. Furthermore, in China, vocational training programs for different technical specialities exist. An excellent case here is Luban Workshops across Africa.gea05950060195c3de4d67ecb22d62ef96c1fdd535b68e6d9373014ece43525d474e6ef7428fa3d56a79174006909f545fbe098a342db6c487555c48f195ec8f6_1280-2581545.jpg

The cooperation between India and China offers broad opportunities to reshape technological and financial landscapes in many countries across the Global South as the world gets more digitalised daily. Pooling resources in technology and finance will facilitate digital transformation and promote inclusive growth in Global South nations.. Already, China has made huge strides towards setting up new digital infrastructures across Asia & Africa with –the expansive Belt-Road Initiative. On the other hand, the Digital India campaign spearheaded by UPI-based revolutionary financial inclusion initiatives suggests how potent nationwide broad-based digitisation campaigns can be.

This cooperation will bring many advantages through improved digital connectivity, enhancing access to education, healthcare services, and government services, and bridging urban-rural divides. Digital channels for expanding financial inclusion empower unbanked individuals to participate fully in the formal economy while accessing important financial services.

However, despite infrastructure gaps, differences in regulatory environments, and cultural obstacles to technology adoption, fruitful cooperation between India and China in the digital realm could bring huge rewards. This collaboration can be a successful model of south-south cooperation for the 21st century. It exemplifies how emerging economies can use their unique experiences and innovations to aid development in other parts of the Global South, thus possibly redefining typical paradigms on traditional international development assistance.

This partnership may also reshape the geopolitical landscape by fostering greater understanding and collaboration between India and China. Despite having had uneasy relations over the years, productive cooperation within this area is a foundation for future joint initiatives across diverse sectors that promote regional stability and prosperity.

The success of this initiative could set a new standard for international cooperation, showcasing the power of shared expertise and resources in addressing global development challenges. Also, through collaborative efforts between India and China, there is still hope to usher in an era characterised by sustainability, equality and inclusiveness.

[ Mohammed Saqib is convenor, COGGS and Secretary General of  India China Economic & Cultural Council ]

References. 

African Union (2020). Digital Transformation Strategy for Africa (2020-2030).

ADB (2021). Asian Development Bank Annual Report.

China Daily (2021). Luban Workshops in Africa.

Government of India (2021). Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana.

GSMA (2021). State of the Industry Report on Mobile Money.

Hillman, J. E. (2020). The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century.

India, MEA (2020). India-Kenya Joint Statement.

NPCI (2021). Unified Payments Interface (UPI) Statistics.

RBI (2021). Financial Literacy Initiatives.

Reuters (2020). Ant Financials’ Microcredit Solutions.

TechNode (2021). Alipay and WeChat Pay User Statistics.

UIDAI (2021). Aadhaar Overview.

World Bank (2018). Global Findex Database 2017.

Xinhua (2020). China’s Health Code System During COVID-19 Pandemic.

How Rupees & Renminbi Driving a Digital Financial Renaissance in Global South? Read Post »

Aligning Power Streams: Southeast Asia’s Ingenious Route to Global South

Simran Walia

The term “Global South” gained prominence in the 1970s and 1980s as a more neutral alternative to “Third World,” distinguishing non-aligned developing countries from the democracies of the “First World” and the now-defunct communist bloc of the “Second World.” Proponents of the Global South advocate for a multipolar global system that challenges Western liberal norms and privileges. Recent shifts in global power—from the transatlantic to the Indo-Pacific, the rise of non-Western nations like China and India, and the relative decline of the West—have accentuated these differing viewpoints. However, the intrinsic diversity of the concept is underscored by the fact that China and India, the two self-declared leaders of the Global South, struggle to forge Asian unity due to their own territorial disputes and nationalist ambitions.

The Global South is often associated with certain characteristics. Its positioning in the Group of 77 (G77) versus the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), or G7, highlights the economic disparities between developing and industrialized nations. The Global South contends that the inequalities of the post-World War II international order, which favor Western nations, stem from colonial legacies and are perpetuated by global capitalism.

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Historically, the normative solidarity of Global South nations has encompassed opposition to colonialism and neocolonialism, resistance to hegemony, and support for a multipolar world. They have persistently advocated for more equitable access to markets, technologies, and financing, underscored the importance of national sovereignty, and challenged Western-centric approaches to human rights and democracy. They have also called for reforms in global governance. The term “Global South” serves not merely as a metaphor for underdevelopment but as a reference to a lengthy history of colonialism, neo-imperialism, and uneven economic and social development, which has perpetuated stark disparities in resource access, life expectancy, and living standards.

The China Factor 

China’s strategic objectives are served by its investments in the Global South despite growing isolation from the West and competition with the United States. China may challenge Western supremacy and increase its influence in forming the global order by aligning with the Global South. This makes a lot of economic sense as well, since developing nations are becoming important markets for Chinese investments, products, and financing. China is intensifying its economic shift towards the developing world in response to growing protectionism from the United States and its allies.

Growing geopolitical rivalry between the US and China has brought back bipolar dynamics akin to those of the Cold War, when a large portion of the world was used as pawns in a fight between superpowers. The pressure on developing countries to choose between the democratic West and authoritarian China and Russia has increased as a result of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine, but many of them are resisting this option. A series of systemic shocks, however, have brought attention to the glaring disparities at the center of the global economy and the susceptibility of lower- and middle-income countries to political, economic, and ecological crises that are not of their own making. These shocks include the COVID pandemic, the economic fallout from Ukraine, and the growing climate emergency.

Simplistic narratives cannot capture the diversity found throughout the Global South. Southeast Asian countries, for example, defy the stereotype of the “developing world” because of their diverse range of development stages, security issues, and economic links. These nations make foreign policy decisions mostly based on their national interests rather than strictly adhering to the rhetoric of the Global South, despite the fact that they face some shared issues.

Is Singapore in Global South?

There are around 670 million people living in the ten ASEAN member nations combined. Singapore, with a per capita GDP of over $73,000, nearly twice that of Japan, and Myanmar, with a per capita GDP of $1,000, are at extreme opposite ends of the ASEAN spectrum. It is difficult to include Singapore in the Global South. Indeed, Singapore has incorporated itself into the economic restrictions imposed on Russia. Despite being largely included in the Global South, Southeast Asia shows a great deal of variation in terms of its degree of development. With gross domestic product per capita levels above the OECD average and human development indices on par with or even higher than those of OECD nations, Singapore and Brunei stand out as anomalies. The per capita GDP of the remaining Southeast Asian countries, on the other hand, ranges from US$1,000 to US$12,000, well below the OECD average.

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The ASEAN and Global South

By their UN voting habits, Southeast Asian nations have shown that they share norms with the Global South, which includes China. In opposition to the “hegemony of liberal democracy,” they have argued for “Asian values” and have consistently backed resolutions that reflect the views of the Global South on democracy and human rights. Furthermore, the South China Sea dispute illustrates how countries in Southeast Asia, and the Global South in general, have prioritized their own interests over defending international law against more powerful nations like China.

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visited New Delhi, following which both Malaysia and India committed to enhancing their ties through a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This unprecedented level of collaboration will focus on shared goals such as public goods delivery, green development, sustainable economic growth, connectivity, and technological advancement. Prime Minister Anwar discussed at length the strategic significance of Malaysia-India relations within the framework of the Global South. He emphasized the importance of air connectivity between the two countries and the potential for further integration in the semiconductor industry.

China has demonstrated skill in using terminology from the “Global South” to critique the West and advance its own agenda, arguing that “true multilateralism” and “universally beneficial” globalization are essential. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged ASEAN leaders to “elevate the Global South for the common interest of all.” Japan has also made efforts to serve as a bridge between the North and the Global South.

ASEAN as a whole is China’s largest commercial partner, followed by South Korea, Japan, and the EU, with the US and India in fourth place. Southeast Asia’s integration into global supply chains and its production of goods primarily for the Global North’s market have contributed significantly to its wealth. This success is partly due to Southeast Asia’s access to capital and technology from the Global North.

The economic reality of Southeast Asian nations shows that, rather than being mere victims or passive recipients, they have been active participants and beneficiaries of the contemporary economic system. In fact, they have strategically shaped regulations to serve their interests by establishing a network of regional free-trade agreements with key trading partners through ASEAN and other minilateral approaches. Although there are complaints, particularly regarding trade restrictions imposed by wealthy countries for political or environmental reasons, these do not, contrary to the rhetoric from the Global South, reflect a general dissatisfaction with the system.

[Simran Walia is an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi, pursuing a PhD in Japanese Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi. ]

The opinions expressed do not reflect the stance of COGGS.

Aligning Power Streams: Southeast Asia’s Ingenious Route to Global South Read Post »

Will India’s Values Illuminate the Path for Global South?

– Prof. Rajesh Kharat, South Asian Studies, JNU, New Delhi

Although the Indian subcontinent is known for its distinct regional identity, its culture has been intertwined with India’s historical and cultural roots since ancient times. In modern times, the ‘South Asia’ region preserves the legacy of Indian tradition and civilization while maintaining unity through diversity.

Cultural identity, especially in Southeast Asian countries, is often associated with Indian traditions and culture. For example, in Indonesia, people use the term ‘Tathastu’ when greeting each other, and many names for boys and girls are similar to Indian names, such as Bhaskara, Yudhishthira, Shankar, and Hanuman. Despite being a constitutionally Islamic state, Indonesia has been linked to the Buddhist and Hindu traditions of India for hundreds of years. The same is true for the countries bordering India in the subcontinent, including Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

Prof. Rajesh Kharat, South Asian Studies, JNU, New Delhi

August 15, 1947, is an important day not only for India but also for other nations of the Global South, as India’s freedom struggle was central to the independence movements across the region. The influence of the Indian political system is evident in the political cultures of these countries. Some of them have embraced democratic values, written constitutions, and pantheism.

Over time, nations began fighting for democratic principles such as freedom, equality, and fraternity, and after gaining independence, they initially adopted democracy. However, many could not sustain this system, which is unfortunate. Compared to India, democracy has not taken root in several nations. Rulers in many of these countries have abandoned democratic values and principles in their quest to retain power. Consequently, the process of nation-building in these countries has faced setbacks.

India’s policy towards sovereign and independent countries is also appreciated by Global South partners. Although newly independent nations from the Indian subcontinent since 1947 have cited Indian political culture as an inspiration and guide, its influence is not always evident in these countries.

Instability in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka has been detrimental to economic development and social integration. In these countries, elections have rarely been used to effect a change of power.

In Bangladesh, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib-ur Rehman, who founded independent Bangladesh, was assassinated. However, India sheltered ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, reflecting its political culture of support for neighbors in distress. Since the 1950s, India has maintained a tradition of assisting neighboring countries in difficult situations, including the Dalai Lama and political leaders from Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Political uprisings in the Maldives have been addressed by India several times.

For instance, India intervened to save then-President Abdul Gayoom in 1988 and recently protected former President Mohammad Nasheed from insurgents. The 1987 India-Sri Lanka agreement helped Sri Lanka combat Tamil terrorists. In 1996 and 2006, India was ready to assist Nepal against Maoists. In 2006, when ULFA killed Bhutanese businessmen traveling across the border in Bhutan, India, alongside the Bhutanese army, destroyed the bases of these outfits.

Political assassinations have occurred throughout the Indian subcontinent. The assassinations of Pakistan’s then-President Zia-ul-Haq and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, as well as the plight of Nawaz Sharif and Pervez Musharraf, highlight the political turmoil in Pakistan. Similar attempts to abolish the monarchy occurred in Nepal, and killings have also taken place in Sri Lanka.

Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigme Paldan Dorji was assassinated in 1964. Political assassinations in India, including those of Mahatma Gandhi, Smt. Indira Gandhi, and Rajiv Gandhi, are notorious, but they do not reflect India’s political culture.

The pattern of frequent constitutional changes in South Asian countries, often driven by coups, has eroded their political stability. Countries like Nepal have altered their constitutions multiple times. In contrast, the Indian Constitution remains robust, supported by an aware citizenry. This stability is not viewed with envy but rather with admiration by many countries in the Global South.

Recently, there have been concerns about undesirable changes in the region’s political culture. The symbols and monuments of the freedom struggle and the incidents that shock the values are taking place. If this is to be recovered, all the Global South countries must pay attention to implementing democracy.

Will India’s Values Illuminate the Path for Global South? Read Post »

From Diplomatic Trenches: What Experts Say About Voice of Global South Summit

[Realities of the 21st century cannot be confronted by the 20th century Victor and Vanquished mindset”Amb Anil Trigunayat]

On August 17, 2024, India hosted the third “Voice of the Global South Summit,” which saw participation from 123 nations. The summit concluded with several significant announcements.

In a recent commentary for India News Network,  Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, a member of the Advisory Council of COGGS and Former Indian Envoy, talks about the shifting dynamics of global influence and the significance of collective action. Trigunayat argues that individual voices of the Global South are increasingly ineffectual in the contemporary geopolitics, where collective stances of Global South cannot be dismissed by those who traditionally shape and enforce international order.

Amb Anil Trigunayat. Advisory Council Member, COGGS

Amb Trigunayat emphasizes that the realities of the 21st century require a departure from the outdated “Victor and Vanquished” mentality of the previous century. This antiquated approach, which is rooted in historical conflicts and power imbalances, fails to address the complexities of today’s global challenges. Instead, the emerging global order demands a more nuanced and cooperative approach to international relations.

Referring to the Global South, Amb Husain Haqqani and Aparna Pande of Hudson Institute in their opinion piece, writes,  “In some ways, it is the latest incarnation of India’s leadership role in the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which at its height during the Cold War comprised 120 countries.”

Former Indian Ambassador Dr. Mohan Kumar’s observations on the Global South underscore significant themes discussed at the Voice of the Global South Summit, particularly regarding climate change as well as energy transitions. Writing in Financial Express, Dr. Kumar  suggests that the summit’s focus on a sustainable future emphasizes the pressing need for adequate climate finance and accessible technology to ensure that countries in the Global South can effectively address climate challenges.

In his opinion piece, Kumar points out that the Global South faces significant vulnerabilities to climate change, which threatens their development prospects and environmental stability. For these nations, the transition to sustainable energy and the broader fight against climate change are not just environmental issues but existential threats. Without substantial support in the form of climate finance and technology, these countries may struggle to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Looking ahead to the upcoming Conference of Parties (COP) in Azerbaijan this November, Amb Kumar suggests that the nations in the Global South summit might consider presenting a unified position. This joint submission could strengthen their collective voice in advocating for necessary financial and technological support from the global community. He asserts that the responsibility to address climate change extends beyond moral considerations to legal obligations, particularly for the world’s top CO2 emitters.

The Global South, with its diverse and vulnerable human as well as other resources, is becoming a focal point in geopolitical competition. Trigunayat notes that Global South is increasingly central to global power struggles, as various international actors vie for influence and alliances. The vulnerabilities of the Global South are not only a critical concern for these nations but also a key strategic interest for global powers seeking to expand their influence.

From Diplomatic Trenches: What Experts Say About Voice of Global South Summit Read Post »

Global South’s Consumer Surge: Redefining Markets, Attracting Investment

Investors worldwide are tuning into a new economic symphony: ascending Global South is splurging more than ever. The once-muted hum of emerging markets has crescendoed into a loud roar, drawing the attention of global deep pockets who are eagerly charting this vibrant spending spree. As wallets in the Global South grow heavier and spending soars, the investors from China to Middle East are keenly aware that Global South, the fast rising consumer power is rewriting the rules of global commerce.

Nations in the Global South, including countries from South Asia, South East Asia and Latin America, are undergoing substantial consumer-driven economic changes. With a combined population of over 6 billion and a youthful median age of around 25, the Global South is witnessing a steady rise in middle-class consumers that is transforming local economies. As the middle class base expands, there is a notable surge in consumer demand, which is driving growth across various sectors, including retail, automotive, and e-commerce. This growing consumer base is not only reshaping local markets but also drawing substantial global investment.

 

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Africa is emerging as one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer markets, outpacing even its impressive GDP growth in recent years. Consumer expenditure in Africa is projected to reach $2.1 trillion by 2025 and soar to $2.5 trillion by 2030 (Brookings). This explosive growth will be driven by several key markets. Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa are expected to become some of the largest consumer markets globally by 2030. However, the potential isn’t limited to these major economies. The other geographies such as Algeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, and Tanzania also present tremendous opportunities for investors and businesses. Each of these nations is experiencing its own wave of consumer growth, fueled by increasing urbanization, technological advancements, and improving economic conditions.

In Latin America, for example, Mexico’s economic scenario is shifting as its middle class grows. The increase in disposable income is driving demand for a variety of consumer goods, from electronics to healthcare products. This change has attracted international companies like Walmart and Unilever, which are expanding their operations in Mexico to tap into this rising economy.

 

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In Brazil, a significant rise in consumer spending has been observed. The growth of the middle class has bolstered sectors such as retail and automotive, with companies like Fiat and Carrefour enhancing their market presence. The trend towards urbanization in metros like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro has further accelerated consumer demand for modern amenities and services. In Argentina, the expansion of e-commerce has been a notable trend. Companies like Mercado Libre have capitalized on the increasing internet penetration and rising consumer spending, becoming major players in the regional online retail market.

The economic ties between South Asia and Middle Eastern economies is also growing because of the rise of consumer markets in Southeast and South Asia.

Overall, the economic dynamism in these Global South countries highlights how a growing middle class and increasing consumer spending are driving economic transformation and attracting global investment, contributing to a more vibrant and interconnected global economy.

Transnational corporations are increasingly targeting these emerging markets due to their potential for high returns and expanding consumer opportunities. The influx of foreign investment, in turn, enhances economic connectivity and integration with the global economy. The interaction between domestic economic growth and international investment is shaping a more dynamic and interconnected global economic environment. As countries in the Global South experience robust economic growth driven by an expanding middle class and rising consumer spending, they become increasingly attractive to international investors. A massive flow of investment is coming from China and Middle East. This influx of foreign investment helps to further strengthen local economies, create jobs, and improve social infrastructure. At the same time, the integration of these emerging markets into the global economy enhances their economic link as well as influence.

 

Global South’s Consumer Surge: Redefining Markets, Attracting Investment Read Post »

Can Football Unite Global South?

Phani Bhushan

In a world, where sports often transcend the mere act of play, football stands out for its extraordinary ability to unite, inspire, and drive social change. As the founder of India Khelo Football (IKF), I have personally witnessed firsthand the power of football to not only foster individual talent but also to bring communities and nations together. This is particularly evident in the Global South, where football is not just a game, but a narrative of hope and a tool for development.

In the Global South, Football is much more than a popular sport. It is a unifier—a common language spoken across the geographical and cultural divides of the Global South. The essence of football lies in its simplicity and inclusivity, allowing it to be accessible to everyone, regardless of socioeconomic background. This accessibility makes it a powerful platform for social integration and community building.

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In the Global South region, organizations like Fútbol Con Corazón in Colombia are pioneering the use of football as a transformative tool. By organizing youth football projects, they empower young people to change their world, demonstrating football’s ability to foster cooperation and prevent violence ( sportanddev). Similarly, the Football Academies for Social Impact (FASI) across Africa emphasize the sport’s educational potential, providing scholarships and nurturing talent both on and off the field. The potential for football to bring the nations of the Global South together is immense. Joint initiatives can be pivotal, such as regional tournaments, development programs, and collaborative youth engagement strategies. These efforts not only elevate the sport within the nations within Global South but also strengthen ties between them, promoting a sense of solidarity and collective identity. By sharing knowledge, resources, and infrastructures, the Global South nations can accelerate not only the development of football but also contribute to mutual advancements in social and economic arenas.

 

Phani Bhushan

However, while FIFA, as the governing body of world football, plays a significant role in the global promotion of football, its efforts alone may not suffice to harness the full potential of football in the Global South. There is a need for a more tailored approach that addresses the unique challenges and harnesses the specific opportunities within these diverse regions. Initiatives should not only aim at developing the sport but also at leveraging it to tackle social issues such as education, gender equality, and community development.

Therefore, I advocate for a more decentralized approach where local bodies and organizations have significant autonomy to design and implement football programs that cater to the specific needs of their communities. This could be further supported by a consortium of Global South nations, working collaboratively to shape policies and direct investments in ways that are most beneficial to their collective footballing and socio-economic growth.

Football has the power to unite and uplift the Global South. As a beacon of hope and a catalyst for change, it can break down barriers. Through collaborative efforts, strategic planning, and inclusive policies, we can transform football’s passion into a powerful movement for social and economic progress, paving the way for a brighter, more connected world. By harnessing football’s potential, we can create meaningful change and advance development across the Global South.

[Phani Bhusan is founder of India Khelo Football,  a serial entrepreneur and an Indian Institute of Technology alumnus.]

Can Football Unite Global South? Read Post »

Political Instability in Bangladesh, Lessons for Global South Neighbours

Prof. Rajesh Kharat

During her uninterrupted 15-year tenure, Sheikh Hasina became one of the most popular leaders in the South Asian nations, after Shrimati Sirimao Bandarnayke, Shrimati Indira Gandhi and Shrimati Benazir Bhutto. Bangladesh emerged economically stronger than any other South Asian state, a nation culturally akin to the immediate neighbourhood. It served as a model for the aspiring economies of the Global South. Regrettably, despite being a popular prime minister, Hasina failed to adhere to the mandate given to her party, Awami League. Undoubtedly, she disrespected the opposition leaders and put them in jail for their alleged political conspiracies, including former prime minister Begum Khalida Zia. She mercilessly punished those who were involved in the assassination of her father, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. All judicial decisions in this matter appeared as political decisions to settle the personal vendetta. Moreover, the nexus for corrupt practices between a few political leaders of the Awami League and the government officials has also stained her political regime. For instance, the appointment of then Army Chief General Aziz Ahmed, to whom she gave a free hand, was reportedly involved in corrupt practices, including defence procurements, which also became one of the reasons for anguish among Bangladeshi people. Curbing the social media and internet, which critized her administration. As a result, her tenure practically became dictatorial, and no one could challenge her decisions.

At the same time, when the issue of unemployment was burning among the youth, an announcement of a 30 percent reservation in employment for those with relatives involved in the liberation movement. The political gimmick she employed attracted only those sympathetic to her and her father’s legacy. However, it has triggered unrest among the job-seeking students, who constitute most of Bangladesh’s population. They feared that they would be outcasts and denied opportunities from the nation’s mainstream as their forefathers were not associated with the Bangladesh Liberation Movement. 

This outburst among students was fueled by radical Islamic forces, who constantly monitored them and also instigated by political forces who engaged in spreading anti-Indian sentiments for her political proximities with India. The eruption of the present political unrest is not a surprise or a sudden. It has been hatched since her victory in the 2018 elections, in which she came with a ruling majority without the existence of a real opposition party, the Bangladesh National Party. So, the protests against the reservation or quota system in employment are symbolic rather than substantive. Thus, students’ protests became a catalyst for removing Sheikh Hasina from the political scene of Bangladesh, as it was the only motive.

Bangladesh’s geostrategic location in the Indian Ocean compelled the US and China to monitor and observe the political developments, as they both have economic and strategic stakes in Bangladesh. The US expressed serious concerns about the state of democracy in Bangladesh and the conduct of recent general elections. At the same time, China followed the wait-and-watch policy as it has maximum economic and financial stakes in Bangladesh. Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China invested considerably in infrastructure development and is one of Bangladesh’s largest trading partners. In addition to this, the political violence in Bangladesh being an Islamic nation is also a concern for the US as well as China. However, none of the countries have expressed openly about it yet, but they are observing the developments in the region.

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Concerns for India:

In recent times, except for Bhutan, India’s neighbourhood has been going through political upheavals that disturb the peace and tranquility of the region. For instance, Myanmar’s Military Junta government is worried and keeps itself ready to counter Rohingyas who may attempt to return there after the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. In the Maldives, ministers openly criticised India for India’s military presence. 

Nepal has also seen political shifts, with hardliner Mr. K P Oli Sharma returning to power and advocating an ‘India-Out’ slogan. His return to power in Nepal is also a concern for India. Pakistan too is facing economic and political turmoil. The establishment in Pakistan is not losing any opportunity to diminish India in South Asia and incite anti-India sentiments among the people of neighbouring states Bangladesh, Maldives and Nepal. They share immediate borders with India, so it will directly impact India. Given this hostile environment, India must remain vigilant, monitor regional political developments, and respond accordingly.

It appears that the constant violence in Bangladesh, which began a few weeks before to remove Sheikh Hasina from political power, has now deviated from its motive. The rioters, who are anti-Awami League, combined with radical Islamic forces, are on the verge of erasing the historical legacies, cultural symbols, and memories of the Liberation movement. It is a grave concern that the youth of a nation wants to do away with the legacies of the freedom struggle and sacrifices of their freedom fighters and set new narratives which may be probably based on monolithic idea. Though the interim government in Bangladesh is under the supervision of Nobel Laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus, the uncertainty of backlash still hangs over the head. Especially the minorities, party workers and bureaucrats, closely associated with the Awami League, are the targets of the protesters. Consequently, the victims may try to cross the Indian borders for refuge and safe sanctuary. The burden of these refugees will affect the economy, society, demography and the political structure of border states like Assam, Tripura, and West Bengal. Therefore, extra efforts must be made to keep a strict vigil on the borders to avoid illegal border-crossings. The burning of the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre in Dhaka signalled that the cultural proximities of Bengali nationalism with India are under challenge and may not work as a cementing factor between India and Bangladesh as it did with the previous government.

The ongoing political crisis in Bangladesh may be an eye-opener to the rest of the South Asian countries as one of the youngest nations in the region has been constantly going through political violence since its independence and the removal of the Head of the State/Government by the uprisings. A feeling of exclusion provoked the youth to be in a rebellious mood against their own country. This serves as a crucial lesson for other South Asian and neighboring Global South nations: they must not overlook the aspirations of their youth or take them for granted. They are principal stakeholders in the Global South’s development in the coming years.

[Rajesh Kharat is  Professor and former Chairperson, South Asian Studies, JNU, New Delhi.  The opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the stance of COGGS.]

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