Event Brief

Transition in Syria : COGGS Advisor Explains Regime Change, Russo-Chinese Realignment

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In a recent panel discussion in New Delhi, COGGS Advisor and acclaimed journalist Atul Aneja provided an analysis of the multifaceted web of regime changes, geopolitical upheavals, and developing global power dynamics. Speaking at India’s oldest state-administered (autonomous ) think-tank Indian Council for World Affairs, Aneja traced the roots of regime change in Syria strategies back to the collapse of the Soviet Union, which marked the beginning of a unipolar world order. He explained that this era saw the proliferation of regime change tactics such as colour revolutions and interventions facilitated by organizations like the USA based agencies like National Endowment for Democracy and USAID. He highlighted Yugoslavia’s breakup under the 42nd President Bill Clinton administration of the USA as the first successful experiment in this strategy, setting a precedent for similar actions in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, as well as North Africa.

 

Addressing the assembly of foreign policy observers in India’s capital, the China and Middle East specialist  emphasized that these movements often masqueraded as grassroots democratic uprisings but were, in reality, geopolitically motivated interventions. Aneja further shared his experience as a journalist in Cairo during the Arab Spring, where he uncovered connections between movements like Egypt’s April 6th Youth Movement and external training programs in Serbia. These programs taught activists techniques for peaceful protests and resistance against state repression, facilitated by west-headquartered organizations such as Freedom House.

Turning Points: Libya and Syria

Libya’s 2011 uprising as a pivotal moment in regime change history. The NATO-led intervention that toppled Lybian President Muammar Gaddafi signified a shift in global power dynamics. However, Syria marked a turning point where Russia and China began actively resisting regime change efforts. Aneja argued that their vetoes against no-fly zones in Syria represented their first line of defense against Western-led interventions aimed at reshaping Eurasia.

He went on to explain that Syria’s survival was critical to preventing further destabilization in the region. The failure to achieve regime change in Syria during 2011-2012 eventually culminated in Bashar al-Assad’s consolidation of power.

Messianic Ideologies , Tensions and Russia’s Reaction 

Aneja explained the ideological transformations within Israel and Iran, describing them as two messianic powers locked in competition. He expressed concerns about Israel’s evolving vision under Netanyahu’s leadership, which aligns with plans for a “Greater Israel” driven by radical ideologies. Similarly, Iran’s Shia beliefs about the return of the Mahdi shape its geopolitical strategies.

He emphasized that although Russia’s offer of Iran a nuclear umbrella could prevent direct conflict, it also runs the risk of escalating tensions into a world war in the event that Iran is attacked.

The Emerging Powers

According to Aneja, the importance of emerging economies like India and China in making reconciliation and balance in West Asia. He advocated for a shift away from Eurocentric diplomacy toward inclusive processes involving civilizational states. He further called for imaginative solutions within a multipolar world framework to address crises like those in Syria.

Atul Aneja’s insights offer a nuanced understanding of how historical events influence current geopolitical developments. His emphasis on inclusive diplomacy highlights opportunities for emerging powers to play a greater role in shaping global future. During his speech, the veteran journalist aptly stated, “Every crisis has a big opportunity,” signaling hope for constructive engagement amidst ongoing regional transformations.

Read Similar: Syria: Reincarnation or Revision? 

[ The views expressed are solely those of the individual and do not represent the views, policies, or positions of COGGS in any capacity. Pls write to us for event briefs/ article submissions and Impact Paper queries: ayan@thegeoeconomics.com ]

Transition in Syria : COGGS Advisor Explains Regime Change, Russo-Chinese Realignment Read Post »

Trump’s 100 % Tariffs Threat on De-dollarization: What Means for Global South

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In a X-post on December 1, US President-elect Donald Trump issued a stark warning that he would impose 100% tariffs on the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—should they attempt to establish a currency rivaling the U.S. dollar. Trump’s threat to use tariffs as a blunt instrument against economic shifts highlights his longstanding preference for trade protectionism as a tool for economic growth. Throughout his presidency, Trump advocated tariffs as a mechanism to bolster domestic industries, create jobs, and increase government revenue. However, the consequences of such measures, including increased costs for U.S. consumers, have raised questions about their long-term effectiveness. As BRICS nations seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar, the dynamics surrounding dollar dominance are evolving—an issue that warrants a more sophisticated approach than simply retaliatory tariffs.

In a panel discussion convened by COGGS, Ambassador Anil Trigunayat, advisor at COGGS, delivered a penetrating analysis of the currency dynamics redefining the global financial system, highlighting how ongoing international conflicts, notably the war in Ukraine, are driving shifts in global trade patterns and currency preferences, with particular implications for the Global South.

I. The Ripple Effects of Global Conflicts

The COGGS discussion begins with the broader context of international conflict, notably the war in Ukraine. This conflict has catalyzed a series of disruptive economic measures, including the expulsion of Russia from the SWIFT international payment system and the seizure of Russian assets by Western powers. Such actions underscore how global conflicts are increasingly shaping economy, particularly for nations that find themselves sidelined by Western economic sanctions. As countries like Russia, China, and others in the Global South are excluded from established financial networks, they are turning to alternative means of trade and finance.

One of the key consequences of these disruptions is the weaponization of commodities like energy, food, and fertilizer. This development  has disrupted global supply chains and intensified inflationary pressures worldwide. In response, nations are rethinking their reliance on the U.S. dollar, exploring alternatives such as bilateral trade agreements in local currencies. These changes, while incremental, signal a growing willingness to explore alternative financial systems that could reduce vulnerability to external pressures.

II. De-dollarization and the Rise of National Currencies

Central to COGGS’s discussion is the trend of de-dollarization—an ongoing shift away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant medium of global trade. Countries like India, Russia, and China have increasingly turned to their own national currencies in bilateral transactions, reducing reliance on the dollar. For example, India has signed trade agreements with over 20 countries, while Russia and China conduct the bulk of their $200 billion trade in their respective currencies, the ruble and the renminbi. These efforts are not an attempt to replace the dollar outright but to diversify the global financial system and reduce exposure to risks associated with U.S. monetary policy and sanctions.

This trend has accelerated in part due to a desire for greater economic autonomy, especially among nations in the Global South. By trading in their own currencies or using digital currencies, these countries are seeking to insulate themselves from the adverse effects of external economic policies. However, despite this growing momentum, the dollar remains entrenched as the primary global reserve currency, holding between 70-80% of global reserve assets. Any meaningful transition away from dollar dominance will be gradual and will require systemic adjustments on a global scale.

A dollar bill imprisoned in a decorative cage symbolizing financial confinement.

III. Challenges to the Dollar’s Dominance

Although the U.S. dollar remains dominant, the current financial architecture is showing signs of strain. The dollar’s position is not easily challenged, as it is deeply embedded in global trade, finance, and banking systems. The dollar’s dominance, however, is increasingly being questioned by countries that perceive it as a tool of U.S. geopolitical power. For many nations, the reliance on the dollar presents both economic and strategic risks—particularly in light of the volatility introduced by U.S. sanctions and the shifting global balance of power.

Nevertheless, the global shift away from the dollar will not happen overnight. These transitions are more about creating options rather than directly supplanting the dollar. While many Western media outlets frame these efforts as a direct challenge to U.S. hegemony, they are more a reflection of the changing priorities of the Global South, which is seeking greater flexibility and resilience in its trade and financial dealings.

IV. The Global South’s Position

For nations in the Global South, the motivation to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar stems from a desire for greater economic sovereignty. Over-dependence on the dollar has made these countries vulnerable to the whims of U.S. monetary policy and economic sanctions, which can have disproportionate impacts on smaller economies. In this context, alternatives like national currencies or digital currencies offer a means of mitigating these vulnerabilities.

Global South is not necessarily seeking to isolate itself from the U.S. dollar. Rather, it is looking for a more diversified financial system that provides greater autonomy and reduces the risks associated with a single currency system. The U.S. should reconsider its reliance on punitive measures, such as tariffs, to preserve dollar dominance. Instead, the U.S. might benefit from engaging in a more collaborative dialogue with other nations about how to adapt to the evolving global economic landscape.

V. A New Currency Order?

The global economic system is in a period of flux, with shifting trade relationships and growing efforts to create alternative financial structures. In future, there will be an effective multipolar economic system – where multiple currencies and trade mechanisms will coexist. This shift, however, will be gradual and complex. The U.S. dollar, while no longer as unassailable as it once was, is unlikely to be completely displaced in the near future. Instead, the global financial system will likely evolve to incorporate a more diversified set of tools, where countries have greater freedom to choose their preferred methods of trade and finance.

 

 

The ongoing erosion of dollar dominance is a response not only to geopolitical conflicts but also to the inherent limitations of a financial system that disproportionately benefits certain nations. The transition towards a more diverse economic order will take time and negotiation.  But it’s clear that the world is moving toward a system where the U.S. dollar is no longer the sole arbiter of global finance. Trump’s threat to impose punitive tariffs on BRICS nations is emblematic of the U.S.’s protectionist stance, but it may miss the larger point: the global financial system is undergoing a transformation. As countries seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar, the U.S. must adapt to a changing world order. This process will be neither quick nor straightforward, but the outcome will undoubtedly reshape the global economic order in the years to come.

Trump’s 100 % Tariffs Threat on De-dollarization: What Means for Global South Read Post »

New Era, New Solutions: COGGS Proposes 5 Points at Global Thinkers Dialogue

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In his lecture at the Plenary session of the Second Global South Think Tanks Dialogue in Nanjing, east China’s Jiangsu Province, on November 14th, Mohammed Saqib, Convenor of the Center for Geoeconomics for the Global South (COGGS), eloquently outlined the transformative potential of South-South Cooperation in advancing sustainable development and promoting global equity. He argued that the traditional North-South development paradigm is increasingly obsolete, and that South-South cooperation—defined by collaboration among developing nations—has emerged as a pivotal mechanism for achieving shared prosperity and addressing common challenges.

The second edition of the Think Tanks Dialogue brought together over 200 think tanks from the Global South, culminating in the formation of the Global South Think Tanks Alliance, a platform for exchanging ideas and advancing collective solutions among Global South nations.

In his address, Saqib emphasized the ongoing shift in global geopolitics, underscoring the rise of a multipolar world in which South-South cooperation plays a central role in shaping the future of global development.

He, representing COGGS, proposed five critical areas where the collective efforts of the Global South are urgently required:

I. Reforming the Global Financial System

Mohammed Saqib began by addressing a foundational issue: the global financial system, which was “established in a different era,” is no longer adequate for meeting the needs of today’s multipolar world. He called for urgent reform to make financial structures more inclusive and responsive to the needs of the Global South. As he puts it:

“The global financial system needs reform, as it was established in a different era.”

He highlighted initiatives like the New Development Bank (NDB), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and India’s RuPay card as positive steps forward in this direction. These institutions, which are spearheaded by countries from the Global South, represent an alternative to traditional Western-dominated financial bodies like the IMF and World Bank.

He argued that these efforts are important, but more must be done to “address the challenges faced by developing economies.” Specifically, he called for the creation of innovative financing mechanisms that rethink debt sustainability. This means developing more flexible financial instruments that can better serve the Global South’s needs without burdening countries with unsustainable debt.

“We should create innovative financing mechanisms that rethink debt sustainability and develop flexible instruments to serve the Global South better.”

Such reforms would empower developing nations to access capital on more favorable terms and with more autonomy, creating a financial ecosystem that is not bound by the legacy structures of the past. These reforms, according to him, are critical not only to address immediate financial challenges but also to enable long-term development and stability.

II. Digital Revolution for Development

Mohammed Saqib found immense potential in the ongoing digital revolution as a driver of development. He asserted that technology offers an opportunity for the Global South to “speed up development” and bypass traditional stages of industrialization. By skipping over certain phases of development, such as mass manufacturing or infrastructure-heavy projects, Global South nations can directly embrace new technologies, leapfrogging to more advanced systems.

“The digital revolution offers a great chance to speed up development and skip traditional stages.”

However, he stressed the importance of creating technology transfer platforms that respect intellectual property (IP) rights while also ensuring broad access to technological innovations.

He pointed to the BRICS nations as an example of how such cooperation can lead to inclusive growth. These countries, through collective initiatives, are demonstrating that the benefits of the digital revolution can be equitably distributed. Initiatives like the BRICS Network University, for instance, are providing educational and research opportunities that can accelerate technological development and knowledge sharing across member states.

 

III. Addressing Climate Change 

The convenor of COGGS brought attention to one of the most pressing challenges facing the Global South: climate change. While developing countries contribute far less to global carbon emissions, they are disproportionately affected by its consequences, from rising sea levels to extreme weather events.

“The Global South faces the harshest impacts of climate change despite contributing the least to the problem.”

Here, South-South cooperation can play a crucial role in sharing climate-resilient technologies and solutions. Mohammed Saqib highlighted successful examples of such cooperation, including China’s success in the Kubuqi Desert and India’s International Solar Alliance (ISA). The Kubuqi Desert initiative, where China transformed a barren landscape into a green area using innovative technology, showcases the power of practical solutions to environmental challenges. Meanwhile, the ISA, which includes 124 countries, represents an extraordinary collaborative effort to scale solar energy across the Global South.

He further argued that initiatives for addressing climate issues, along with the sharing of climate-resilient technologies, can help developing countries adapt to the challenges posed by climate change while reducing their carbon footprints.

IV. Healthcare and Knowledge Sharing

While addressing at the dialogue, Mohammed Saqib stressed the importance of healthcare reform and the sharing of medical knowledge.The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the deep vulnerabilities in global healthcare systems, particularly in developing countries. However, it also demonstrated the power of unity and cooperation in addressing global crises.

“The COVID-19 crisis has not only exposed our vulnerabilities but also demonstrated the power of our unity in overcoming challenges.”

South-South cooperation in healthcare, he argued, is critical not only for pandemic response but also for long-term health resilience. By sharing medical technologies, research, and healthcare best practices, Global South nations can build stronger, more responsive health systems that are better equipped to handle future health emergencies. This would also help address the chronic health disparities that exist within and between countries in the Global South.

V. Reforming Global Governance Structures

While addressing the assembly of think-tankers from the Global South nations, Saqib underscored the need for reforming global governance structures to align with the contemporary economic and political realities of a multipolar world. The current international order, according to him, is outdated and fails to reflect the growing influence of the Global South. The existing power dynamics in institutions such as the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank disproportionately favor the Global North, leaving developing countries with limited influence.

“To effectively pursue these objectives, it is important to reform global governance structures so they align with today’s economic and political realities.”

This reform, he suggested, should aim for more equitable representation of the Global South in decision-making bodies. This would involve revising voting rights, increasing participation in key international institutions, and ensuring that the interests of developing countries are better represented in global policy discussions. Only through such reforms, he argued, can the Global South fully contribute to shaping the global order in a way that benefits all nations.

New Era, New Solutions: COGGS Proposes 5 Points at Global Thinkers Dialogue Read Post »

Timeline: How Has BRICS Evolved Over the Years?

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Economist Jim O’Neill sparked a revolution in global economic thought by coining the term “BRIC” in 2001. He foresaw a future where Brazil, Russia, India, and China would rise to prominence and further reshape the global economy. Rich in resources and human capital, these four nations formed BRI to challenge traditional economic powerhouses.  The bloc was established to unite the world’s key developing countries, creating an alternative to the political and economic dominance of wealthier nations in North America and Western Europe.

The journey began with the first BRIC ministerial meeting in 2006, held on the margins of a UN General Assembly session, establishing the groundwork for future cooperation. The leaders of the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—held their inaugural meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, during the G8 Outreach Summit in July 2006.  In May 2008, the BRICS foreign ministers convened, signaling the coalition’s growing importance in international diplomacy. This gathering marked the formal beginning of BRIC as a cohesive unit and this emphasized the need for collaboration to address shared economic challenges and seize opportunities.

Momentum increased on 16 June 2009 with the inaugural BRICS summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Leaders convened to discuss their economic ambitions and declared their intent to institutionalize their alliance. Prior to this, the first BRICS Academic Forum was held in May 2009 to promote intellectual exchange and collaboration among scholars from member states.

In December 2010, South Africa joined the group, transforming BRIC into BRICS. This expansion symbolized a commitment to inclusivity and recognized the diverse voices within emerging markets, amplifying the perspectives of a wider range of developing nations.

In April 2010, the second BRICS summit was hosted in Brasilia, Brazil, leading to the establishment of the BRICS Inter-Bank Cooperation Mechanism and the first BRICS Business Forum to enhance economic ties among member nations. The inclusion of South Africa that same year further diversified the coalition’s representation.

The third summit took place in Sanya, China, on 14 April 2011, followed by the fourth summit in March 2012, both reinforcing the bloc’s commitment to collaboration. The fifth BRICS summit in Durban, South Africa, in March 2013 was notable for establishing the BRICS Think Tanks Council and the BRICS Business Council, as well as initiating the inaugural BRICS-Africa outreach dialogue to strengthen ties with African nations.

In July 2014, the sixth BRICS summit in Brasilia led to the establishment of the New Development Bank, aimed at financing infrastructure projects and promoting sustainable development. The seventh summit in Ufa, Russia, in July 2015 focused on innovation with the launch of the BRICS Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) Framework Programme.

 

Subsequent summits continued to build on this agenda, with the eighth in Benaulim, India, in October 2016, and the ninth in Xiamen, China, in September 2017. The tenth summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, in July 2018, and the eleventh summit in Brasilia in November 2019 further advanced the group’s objectives.

In July 2020, the BRICS Women’s Business Alliance was launched, highlighting the importance of gender equality and women’s participation in economic activities. The twelfth summit, held virtually in November 2020, adapted to the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the thirteenth summit, also virtual, in September 2021.

In March 2022, the virtual BRICS Vaccine Research and Development Center was launched, showcasing the bloc’s commitment to global health issues. The fourteenth BRICS summit convened in June 2022, setting the stage for further collaboration.

The fifteenth BRICS summit took place in August 2023 in Johannesburg, South Africa, where significant developments occurred, including the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia as new members. This reflected the growing influence and interest in BRICS as a platform for international cooperation. The upcoming sixteenth BRICS summit is scheduled for 22-24 October 2024 in Kazan, Russia, marking another important chapter in the coalition’s ongoing evolution and its role in the changing world order. The summit is set to come up with a declaration and some announcements on payment, currency and banking systems. This initiative could pave the way for enhanced economic collaboration and greater financial autonomy among member nations.

 

Read More: Kazan Convergence: BRICS+ and Quest for a Fairer World Order – COGGS

 

Timeline: How Has BRICS Evolved Over the Years? Read Post »

Global South’s Impact on Peace and Equity: Under-Secretary-General Erik Solheim’s Insights

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Erik Solheim, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Co-Chair of the Europe-Asia Center, highlighted the significant role of the Global South in promoting a more peaceful and equitable world
amid historical Western dominance. He made the comment, while delivered a significant address at
the Global South Think Tank Forum in Beijing, organized by Chinese broadcaster CGTN.

Solheim began by reflecting on the last two centuries, a period dominated by Western powers, particularly European colonial forces and the United States, which wielded considerable influence over global affairs. While acknowledging the advancements in science and industry during this era, he emphasized the accompanying social injustices, including racism and colonial oppression.

Solheim is a diplomat and former Politician, served in the Norwegian government from 2005 to 2012 as Minister of International Development and Minister of the Environment. He was  Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme from 2016 to 2018.

The central theme of Solheim’s remarks was the emergence of the Global South, particularly nations like China and India, which he characterized as key players in this transformative phase.

He described this rise as a “positive development” that promises a fairer and more sustainable world,
contrasting the Global South’s focus on sustainability and inclusive prosperity with the historical practices of Western powers.  In concluding his remarks, Solheim expressed optimism for the 21st century, envisioning it as a time of increased peace and prosperity. He pointed to regions in Asia where large populations coexist without conflict as models of this promise.

Solheim highlighted the peaceful nature of major Global South countries, a few key points:

China has not engaged in military conflict for the past 45 years.
India has only been involved in conflict with neighboring Pakistan since its independence.
Other Global South nations, such as Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, and Nigeria, have refrained from military aggression against other countries.

This emphasis on non-aggression suggests that the Global South is poised to play a commendable role in promoting global peace, which Solheim identifies as a crucial asset in the evolving geo-politics. Solheim proposed the creation of a multipolar world where diverse nations coexist and collaborate. He articulated a vision in which:

The United States, China, India, and Europe all play significant roles in global governance.
It is essential to acknowledge the unique political systems of each nation; he asserted that the U.S. will not adopt the Chinese political model, nor will China adopt the American one.

Principles of Respect and Dialogue

To facilitate cooperation in this new multipolar context, Solheim emphasized two foundational principles:

Respect: Mutual respect among nations is essential for fostering collaboration on prosperity, environmental sustainability, and peace.

Dialogue: Open communication is crucial for addressing differences, particularly regarding contentious issues such as conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as economic and environmental policies. The former Under Secretary argued that constructive dialogue can lead to resolutions and understanding, positioning these principles as necessary for a stable global order.

 

Global South’s Impact on Peace and Equity: Under-Secretary-General Erik Solheim’s Insights Read Post »

COGGS Convenor Proposes Strategic Leadership for BRICS at Moscow Forum

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While speaking at BRICS Seminar on Governance & Cultural Exchange Forum in Moscow on September 23, Mohammed Saqib, Convenor of COGGS offered a pointed evaluation of the BRICS coalition, stressing both its prospects and its current shortcomings. While he recognized the establishment of the New Development Bank as a remarkable achievement, Economist Saqib contended that the organization has fallen short in realizing its goal of making collaborative economic models among its member states: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. He underscored the lack of a unified vision in the BRICS that rises above domestic political interests.

Mohammed Saqib, Convenor of COGGS

Private Sector-Global South Engagement & BRICS Business Club

Saqib stressed the importance of engaging private entrepreneurs from the Global South, arguing for the formation of an elite BRICS Business Club. He suggested that such a group could provide critical insights to governments and help forge a path toward accountability and achievable targets.

Furthermore, he advocated for practical measures like currency swaps among BRICS nations to address trade deficits, arguing that this could alleviate dependency on established financial systems like SWIFT.

Saqib concluded with a hopeful perspective, asserting that the Global South is on the verge of a new economic order. He positioned China as a key player that must overcome its cautiousness to catalyze this shift.

He underscored the critical juncture at which BRICS finds itself, as well as the potential consequences of inaction in the face of external pressures, particularly from the United States.

“If we allow swapping of currency, then 86 % of the trade deficit among each other can be sorted out within Global South. We don’t need to go to any either SWIFT or any other system,” Mohammed Saqib remarked.

Each BRICS Member Should Guide Global South

Saqib outlined a vision where each BRICS member nation could take on specific leadership roles in various sectors. For instance, he proposed that India and Russia should spearhead efforts in education and development, showcasing their achievements at the end of the year. Similarly, he argued that Brazil could lead initiatives focused on agriculture and food security, with South Africa playing a pivotal role in environmental protection.

Furthermore, he noted that while India and Russia could jointly host educational initiatives, Russia could also assume a leadership position in energy security for the Global South.

“So similarly, for all the five countries and plus eleven countries, we have worked out a table of what kind we should be the combination of the partners, a main leader, a co-leader, and some kind of performance they will have to show. That is not happening, and BRICS is not performing,” he asserted, while speaking at the seminar in Moscow.

COGGS Convenor Proposes Strategic Leadership for BRICS at Moscow Forum Read Post »

IMF Veteran Proposes Currency Solutions to Decrease Dollar Dependence

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Ayanangsha Maitra, COGGS

Brazilian Economist Paulo Nogueira Batista, former Vice President of New Development
Bank (NDB) and former Executive Director for Brazil (as well as some other countries) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), asserts that moving away from the dollar necessitates a feasible alternative reserve currency. “The dollar, euro, and Western payment systems have been grossly misused as political and economic tools. Furthermore, the fiscal and financial vulnerabilities of the US economy raise serious questions about the viability of relying on the dollar as the dominant international reserve currency,” Batista stated during the BRICS Seminar on Governance & Cultural Exchange Forum 2024 in Moscow on September 23, 2024.

“BRICS will disappoint the Global South if they remain focused on slogans and speeches without executing groundbreaking practical initiatives,”- Paulo Nogueira Batista.

Prescribing Ways for Easier Currency Trade

He emphasizes that without an alternative currency, countries will struggle with managing trade surpluses and deficits. Citing Russia’s trade surplus with India, he explained that while Russia accumulates significant rupees from bilateral trade, it may not want to hold them long-term due to concerns over convertibility and stability. He suggested that Russia could:

Invest in India: Use the rupees to invest in Indian businesses or assets.
Increase imports: Purchase more Indian goods and services to alleviate the rupee surplus.
Trade with third countries: Utilize the rupees to engage in trade with nations seeking Indian currency.
“The challenges faced by BRICS nations today are much greater than when the group was established in 2008. The global environment has become significantly more hostile and perilous,” Batista noted.

New Reserve Currency: Reducing Dollar Dependence

He proposed New Reserve Currency (NRC a name for example) aims to function alongside existing national currencies as a parallel digital currency for international transactions. It will be overseen by the New Reserve Monetary Authority (NRMA), which will issue NRCs and new reserve bonds (NRBs) supported by the treasuries of member countries. Initially, an SDR-like unit of account could be established, reflecting the GDP contributions of participating nations.

“The NRC would not have a physical existence in theform of paper money, coins, and demand deposits in
commercial banks. It would be a digital currency, analogous to the CBDCs (central bank digital currencies)
that have been or are being created in a number of countries,” Batista opined.

The Economist further identifies BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE—as potential key players in the process of making an alternative of dollar. These nations could create alternative payment systems and engage in trade using their national currencies, thereby reducing reliance on the US dollar.

However, to avoid disillusioning the Global South, BRICS must move beyond mere rhetoric and implement tangible initiatives that showcase their dedication to collaboration and innovation.

“BRICS will disappoint the Global South if they remain focused on slogans and speeches without executing groundbreaking practical initiatives,” he cautioned.

IMF Veteran Proposes Currency Solutions to Decrease Dollar Dependence Read Post »

The UN’s Summit and Pact For the Future

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Flags of Countries in front of the United Nations Office at GenevaIn a bold move, the world leaders at the Summit of the Future on 22 September 2024 rolled out a groundbreaking Pact for the Future, complete with a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations. Dubbed the most comprehensive international agreement in years, this Pact looks at fresh areas while tackling issues that have been stuck in limbo for decades. It’s like giving an old car a turbocharged engine—this is all about making sure international institutions can keep up in a world that’s flipped upside down since their inception. As the Secretary-General wisely pointed out, “we cannot create a future fit for our grandchildren with a system built by our grandparents.”

Pact for the Future: What It Reads? 

Member States reaffirmed their commitment to accelerate the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and the 2023 SDG Summit Political Declaration through urgent and scaled-up actions, policies, and investments aimed at eradicating poverty and hunger, ensuring that no one is left behind. The Pact also highlights the importance of considering how to advance sustainable development beyond 2030.  Global leaders agreed to significantly enhance financing for the SDGs and close the SDG financing gap, which includes establishing an SDG Stimulus, meeting official development assistance targets, attracting private sector investment, mobilizing domestic resources, fostering inclusive and effective international tax cooperation, and exploring a global minimum tax rate for high-net-worth individuals.  Regarding climate change, the Pact emphasized the necessity of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, transitioning energy systems away from fossil fuels to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and promoting disaster risk-informed approaches to sustainable development.

Reform of the Security Council: The summit marks the most progressive and concrete commitment to Security Council reform since the 1960s. This initiative aims to enhance the effectiveness and representativeness of the Council, particularly by addressing the historical under-representation of Africa.

Nuclear Disarmament Recommitment: The summit represents the first multilateral recommitment to nuclear disarmament in over a decade, clearly affirming the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons entirely.

For the Youth

The Summit of the Future introduced the historic Declaration on Future Generations, outlining concrete steps to incorporate the needs and perspectives of future generations into decision-making, including the potential establishment of an envoy for future generations, while also committing to creating more meaningful opportunities for young people to actively participate in shaping the decisions that impact their lives on a global scale.

The summit gathered over 4,000 participants, including Heads of State and Government, observers, intergovernmental organizations, the UN System, civil society, and non-governmental organizations. In a concerted effort to amplify the voices of diverse actors, the formal Summit was preceded by the Action Days held on September 20-21, which drew more than 7,000 individuals from all walks of life. These Action Days showcased robust commitments to meaningful action from all stakeholders, culminating in pledges totaling USD 1.05 billion to promote digital inclusion.

The UN’s Summit of the Future concluded amid a backdrop of growing frustration regarding global representation and decision-making. The resulting document includes commitments to address historical injustices, particularly concerning Africa, and to enhance representation for regions such as Asia Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. Additionally, it emphasizes the need to reform the international financial architecture, improve responses to global shocks, and foster cooperation in outer space exploration while preventing an arms race.

The UN’s Summit and Pact For the Future Read Post »

Global South Must Unite to Tackle Climate Change, Terrorism, AI, and Pandemics: Yemeni Activist

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Speaking at the Yerevan Dialogue, Nada Al-Hajjri , President of the Yemen Information Centre, shared vital insights on the collaborative potential of the Global South in tackling pressing global challenges. She highlighted that challenges like climate change, counter-terrorism, artificial intelligence, and pandemics require collective efforts, as no single nation can address them effectively on its own.

“When we talk about reform of multilateral institutions often times it’s the West pitted against the rest and it’s couldn’t be further away from the truth it is reform of multilateral Institutions is not about only countries around the world having representation. it’s about the massive dysfunction that is taking place in these institutions that are no longer being effective and the work that they’re doing,”- NADA AL-HAJJRI

Al-Hajjri called for a shift in how we view global relations, criticizing the simplistic divide between the Global South and Global North.  Addressing at the dialogue, she argued that framing the reform of these institutions as a conflict between the West and the rest obscures the real issues—namely, the dysfunction of these institutions, which often fail to meet contemporary global needs. Instead of seeking mere representation, Al-Hajjri emphasized the importance of ensuring that these institutions remain relevant and effective.

“When we talk about reform of multilateral Institutions often times it’s the West pitted against the rest and it’s couldn’t be further away from the truth it is reform of multilateral Institutions is not about only countries around the world having representation. it’s about the massive dysfunction that is taking place in these institutions that are no longer being effective and the work that they’re doing,” she commented.

She commended India’s approach to advocating for reform, which focuses on constructive engagement with Western nations.  “We need to advocate for reform while continuing to engage with Western countries,” Al-Hajjri asserted, highlighting that cooperation is essential for progress.

Al-Hajjri’s remarks serve as a powerful reminder of the Global South’s ability to unite in addressing common challenges.

The Significance of Global South Alliances 

The formation of alliances within the Global South is increasingly seen as a significant statement of intent rather than merely a strategic maneuver. These emerging blocs reflect a collective desire for inclusion in major multilateral institutions and access to the economic prosperity that defines the global landscape. However, many countries in the Global South encounter significant barriers that hinder their integration into existing systems.

Recent discussions emphasize the appeal of these alternative blocs in amplifying the voices of historically marginalized countries. Nations are increasingly drawn to these alliances as a means of expanding their influence and asserting their agency on the global stage. While forming distinct blocs can complicate international relations—since it’s impractical to create a bloc for every issue—it nonetheless represents a necessary response to feelings of exclusion from mainstream institutions.

The BRICS formation serves as a key example. Opinions on its effectiveness vary, with some viewing it as a challenge to the Western-led world order, while others question its practical utility. Nevertheless, BRICS signals that the Global South’s voices are not being adequately heard, prompting a desire for better integration into the global system.

The increasing interest from various nations in joining BRICS underscores this sentiment. Each year, more countries express their desire to participate, highlighting an ongoing call for recognition within global governance frameworks. This trend illustrates that the Global South is not simply reacting to exclusion; it is actively asserting its position in the international arena.

Global South Must Unite to Tackle Climate Change, Terrorism, AI, and Pandemics: Yemeni Activist Read Post »

Time for Global South Solutions to Fix South Problems: Nigerian Thinker Osaghae

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Ayanangsha Maitra, COGGS

The phenomenon of “state fragility” has become an urgent concern, especially within the Global South, Dr. Eghosa Emmanuel Osaghae, Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs asserted while addressing at the Yerevan Dialogue, held on September 9-11, 2024 in Yerevan, Armenia. 

Dr. Eghosa Emmanuel Osaghae

“The time has come for Global South solutions to Global South problems,” the Nigerian political scientist remarked.

This sentiment reflects a growing recognition that the challenges faced by fragile states cannot solely be addressed through external intervention or the influence of traditional superpowers. Instead, it is imperative for nations within the Global South to take charge of their own destinies and devise solutions tailored to their unique contexts.

Dr. Osaghae emphasized, “Opportunities that immediately present themselves highlight that state fragility is a global phenomenon, but it is also a shared responsibility. If we leave it to the so-called superpowers as we have known them, we will never find a solution.” This perspective underscores the importance of collective action and responsibility from the Global South. Many fragile states find themselves unable to address their issues independently, often relying on external assistance. However, as Dr. Osaghae cautioned, if such support devolves into new battlegrounds—echoing the historical patterns seen in various regions of Africa—then the Global South must awaken to the need for proactive measures.

A key aspect of this awakening is the strengthening of intra-Global South trading capacities. There is a pressing need for the Global South to create a strong network aimed at promoting industrialization and enhancing trade, he said at the dialogue. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) presents a significant opportunity in this regard. Dr. Osaghae pointed out, “The Global South is not going to get the traction if all of its trade remains with unequal exchanges with the West and the rest of the world.”

To realize the potential of such initiatives, regional organizations within the Global South must take the lead in addressing issues that matter most to their constituents. “We cannot afford to wait for distant solutions from those who may manipulate us for their own agendas.”

Dr. Osaghae also highlighted healthcare as a critical priority, asserting that “COVID is not the last pandemic.” He emphasized the need for advanced preparedness in the face of emerging viruses, such as the recent incidents of monkeypox, which disproportionately affect populations in the Global South. He urged for solutions that encompass prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for upcoming epidemics and pandemics, advocating for effective management strategies.

Is Global South Insecure? 

Security, Dr. Osaghae argued, is the overarching framework within which all these issues must be addressed. “The greatest problem, arguably in the Global South today, is the fact that people don’t have security,” he noted. This lack of security leads to displacement and migration, exposing vulnerable populations to numerous other challenges. “If you have a critical mass of poor people, there’s very little progress that can be made,” he explained. However, the Nigerian political scientist believes that with a secure environment, poverty can be more effectively addressed, as can health crises.

Time for Global South Solutions to Fix South Problems: Nigerian Thinker Osaghae Read Post »

Time for Global South Solutions to Fix South Problems: Nigerian Thinker Osaghae

|

Ayanangsha Maitra, COGGS

The phenomenon of “state fragility” has become an urgent concern, especially within the Global South, Dr. Eghosa Emmanuel Osaghae, Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs asserted while addressing at the Yerevan Dialogue, held on September 9-11, 2024 in Yerevan, Armenia. 

Dr. Eghosa Emmanuel Osaghae

“The time has come for Global South solutions to Global South problems,” the Nigerian political scientist remarked.

This sentiment reflects a growing recognition that the challenges faced by fragile states cannot solely be addressed through external intervention or the influence of traditional superpowers. Instead, it is imperative for nations within the Global South to take charge of their own destinies and devise solutions tailored to their unique contexts.

Dr. Osaghae emphasized, “Opportunities that immediately present themselves highlight that state fragility is a global phenomenon, but it is also a shared responsibility. If we leave it to the so-called superpowers as we have known them, we will never find a solution.” This perspective underscores the importance of collective action and responsibility from the Global South. Many fragile states find themselves unable to address their issues independently, often relying on external assistance. However, as Dr. Osaghae cautioned, if such support devolves into new battlegrounds—echoing the historical patterns seen in various regions of Africa—then the Global South must awaken to the need for proactive measures.

A key aspect of this awakening is the strengthening of intra-Global South trading capacities. There is a pressing need for the Global South to create a strong network aimed at promoting industrialization and enhancing trade, he said at the dialogue. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) presents a significant opportunity in this regard. Dr. Osaghae pointed out, “The Global South is not going to get the traction if all of its trade remains with unequal exchanges with the West and the rest of the world.”

To realize the potential of such initiatives, regional organizations within the Global South must take the lead in addressing issues that matter most to their constituents. “We cannot afford to wait for distant solutions from those who may manipulate us for their own agendas.”

Dr. Osaghae also highlighted healthcare as a critical priority, asserting that “COVID is not the last pandemic.” He emphasized the need for advanced preparedness in the face of emerging viruses, such as the recent incidents of monkeypox, which disproportionately affect populations in the Global South. He urged for solutions that encompass prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for upcoming epidemics and pandemics, advocating for effective management strategies.

Is Global South Insecure? 

Security, Dr. Osaghae argued, is the overarching framework within which all these issues must be addressed. “The greatest problem, arguably in the Global South today, is the fact that people don’t have security,” he noted. This lack of security leads to displacement and migration, exposing vulnerable populations to numerous other challenges. “If you have a critical mass of poor people, there’s very little progress that can be made,” he explained. However, the Nigerian political scientist believes that with a secure environment, poverty can be more effectively addressed, as can health crises.

Time for Global South Solutions to Fix South Problems: Nigerian Thinker Osaghae Read Post »

UN South-South Cooperation Day: Why UN Chief Guterres Seeks Triangular Cooperation?

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On the occasion of United Nations Day for South-South Cooperation on September 12, UN Secretary-General António Guterres delivered a significant message highlighting the transformative potential of unity among developing nations. Guterres emphasized that “only together can countries leverage multilateral support and realize shared prosperity,” underscoring the critical role of South-South cooperation in addressing global challenges.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres

What is Day for South-South Cooperation? 

On 12 September 2024, the United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation (UNOSSC) will spearhead the global observance of the United Nations Day for South-South Cooperation, themed “A Better Tomorrow with South-South Cooperation.” This event sets the stage for the Summit of the Future, which will be held at the UN Headquarters in New York from 22 to 23 September 2024. During the Summit, Member States will work towards establishing principles, commitments, and actions to promote a sustainable future.

What UN SG Said on South-South Cooperation Day? 

The Secretary-General acknowledged that while South-South partnerships are crucial, they do not absolve wealthier nations from their responsibilities. Addressing ahead of the South-South cooperation day he stated, “South-South cooperation does not reduce the responsibility of wealthier nations to help tackle global inequalities. It does not replace North-South cooperation.”

Guterres further highlighted that strong South-South partnerships, along with triangular cooperation, are instrumental in building a fairer and more inclusive global financial system. He noted that these collaborations “can advance a fairer, more inclusive global financial system that responds to the challenges faced by developing countries.”

Moreover, he pointed out that such partnerships have the potential to unlock “the power of digitalization, data, and science-backed solutions for sustainable development.” This reflects the importance of leveraging modern technology and innovation to drive progress.

The Secretary-General also emphasized the impact of these collaborations on improving the quality of life and building resilience. He stated that they “can help improve the quality of life today and for future generations, building resilience and empowering women and young people.”

As the Summit of the Future approaches  on 22 and 23 September, Guterres called for a reaffirmation of commitment to South-South and triangular cooperation. He concluded, “by pooling resources, know-how, and experience, we can create a more equitable world for all,” highlighting the importance of solidarity and mutual support in achieving global equity and sustainable development.

UN South-South Cooperation Day: Why UN Chief Guterres Seeks Triangular Cooperation? Read Post »

What Heads of State Remarked at India-Africa Business Conclave

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The three-day long 19th CII India-Africa Business Conclave, held on August 19-21 in New Delhi, has set a new standard in the evolving economic ties between India and Africa. At the heart of the discussions was Africa’s rise as one of the world’s most dynamic economic regions, marked by an impressive$ 6.7 trillion in consumer and business spending. As Africa’s third-largest trading partner, India has witnessed its trade with the continent grow from USD 68.5 billion in 2011-12 to USD 83.34 billion in 2023-24, reflecting the deepening and expanding nature of warm relationship.

The 19th CII India-Africa Business Conclave, convened by Confederation of Indian Industry underscored the vital role of the India-Africa growth partnership within the broader context of the Global South alliance. The conclave, a collaboration between the CII, India’s Ministry of External Affairs, and  Ministry of Commerce & Industry, highlighted strategic areas for accelerating economic integration between the two regions.

Prosper Bazombanza, Vice President of  Burundi, emphasized the potential for Indian investors to significantly contribute to Burundi’s economic development. By leveraging Burundi’s rich natural resources, Indian businesses could play a crucial role in enhancing the country’s growth trajectory through creating a more cooperative environment.

In a similar vein, Muhammad B.S. Jallow, Vice President of  Gambia, noted the strategic discussions facilitated by the conclave. Key sectors such as energy, infrastructure development, affordable housing, and healthcare were identified as focal points for collaboration with Indian enterprises.

India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal emphasized that the India-Africa partnership should be driven by a clear, actionable agenda with specific, achievable goals across short, medium, and long-term plans, aiming to produce tangible outcomes and measurable results.

While addressing in the business conclave, Jeremiah Kpan Koung, Vice President of Liberia, invited Indian firms to explore investment opportunities within Liberia’s agricultural sector. Liberia’s substantial land resources and favorable climatic conditions present significant opportunities for growth. Additionally, the country is open to various forms of investment, including private-private and public-private partnerships.

Marie Cyril Eddy Boisse´zon, Vice President of  Mauritius, highlighted the deep-seated civilizational ties between India and Africa. He advocated for sustained and focused efforts to extract tangible benefits from the cooperation in sectors such as digitalization, healthcare, space development, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, and power. This underscores the need for a strategic approach to leveraging shared values and mutual interests.

Dr. C.G.D.N. Chiwenga, Vice President of Zimbabwe, pinpointed agriculture, mining, health, energy, and infrastructure as critical areas for collaborative growth. Zimbabwe’s openness to partnership with India aims to drive progress across these sectors, emphasizing the mutual benefits of such cooperation.

The 19th CII India Africa Business Conclave has thus reinforced the imperative for deepened economic integration between India and Africa. By focusing on sector-specific collaborations and harnessing shared resources and values, both regions stand to gain from enhanced mutual growth and development.

 

Rui Miguens de Oliveira, Minister of Industry & Commerce of Angola invited Indian companies to explore investment opportunities in Angola in agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, financial services, healthcare etc. Serge Gnaniodem Poda, Minister of Industrial Development, Commerce, Handicrafts and Small and Medium Enterprises, Burkina Faso, remarked the country seeks major investments from India in sectors such as agriculture, agri-business, IT & ICT services, pharmaceuticals, renewable energy and healthcare.

Chad’s Minister of Trade and Industry, Guibolo Fanga Mathieu, said the country offers significant business opportunities in sectors like agriculture, animal husbandry and crops like cotton. IT and ICT.

Sosten Gwengwe, Minister of Trade and Industry of Malawi, highlighted Malawi’s ATM (Agriculture, Tourism and Mining) strategy that opens us new investment opportunities for Indian companies.

Seydou Asman, Minister of Trade & Industry of Niger, urged Indian companies to increase their involvement in Niger, highlighting the country’s mineral wealth, extensive coastline, efficient transport infrastructure, and potential for renewable energy. Meanwhile, Omar Said Shaaban, Minister for Trade and Industrial Development in Zanzibar, Tanzania, described India as a key, reliable partner and encouraged Indian businesses to explore opportunities in Tanzania’s agri-business, tourism, and blue economy sectors, where the country holds a competitive edge.

What Heads of State Remarked at India-Africa Business Conclave Read Post »

Finance to Fraternity: Insights from 3rd Voice of Global South Summit

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In the midst of geopolitical turmoil, and prolonged conflicts, India convened the third edition of the Voice of Global South Summit on August 17, 2024, engaging 123 nations from the Global South.  Muhammad Yunus, Chief Advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh advocated for a complete overhaul of the financial system in the Global South to ensure equitable wealth distribution. The nobel laureate Yunus  asserted that integrating entrepreneurship with social business has the potential to transform the Global South.

In his address, Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated a compelling vision that addresses critical global priorities, including health, food, and energy security, while also emphasizing the need for enhanced global governance and financial inclusion.

3rd Voice of Global South Summit (courtesy: Dr. S Jaishankar on X)

The assembly of 123 nations reflect a strategic framework for channeling cooperation and advancing the collective aspirations of the Global South in these challenging times. The theme of the 3rd edition of the summit was “An Empowered Global South for a Sustainable Future. ” The leaders of Bangladesh, Belarus, Bhutan, Chile, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Grenada, Guyana, Lao PDR, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Mongolia, Nepal, Oman, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Tajikistan, Timor Leste, Uruguay and Vietnam attended the Leaders session. Thirty-four foreign ministers and 118 ministers joined the ministerial sessions of the summit.

 $2.5 million fund for Promotion of Trade

India outlined the objectives of the “Global Development Compact,” emphasizing a multi-faceted approach for development. The initiative, that was announced in the summit will prioritize trade for development, capacity building, technology sharing, and project-specific concessional finance and grants. To enhance trade promotion further among the Global South, India will establish a special $2.5 million fund and separately provide $1 million for training in trade policy and negotiation. The Global Development Compact will promote trade, technology sharing, and concessional financing, drawing on India’s growth experience and aligning with the priorities of developing countries.

Trade and sustainable development were key priorities in the summit, emphasizing the necessity of fair trade practices and sustainable development goals. India highlighted women-led development as a crucial component of this agenda, recognizing the role of women in driving economic growth and innovation.

In the virtual summit, it was announced that India is contributing to the SDG Stimulus leaders group to address financial stress and development needs in the Global South. The initiative is ideated to make affordable generic medicines accessible, supporting the training of drug regulators, and sharing technology and experiences in ‘natural farming’ to advance agricultural practices.

During the leaders’ session of the summit, advancement of digital infrastructure was portrayed as revolutionary, with India championing the Unified Payment Interface (UPI) as a model for financial inclusion. This digital payment not only simplifies transactions but also connects Global South nations in a unified financial network, facilitating easier cross-border transactions and economic integration.

While addressing, Prime Minister Modi emphasized that the upcoming UN Summit of the Future represents a vital platform for Global South nations to present their concerns and influence global governance. The Indian Prime Minister, who anchored the summit, highlighted the summit as a key opportunity for these countries to advocate for a more inclusive system at the global level. UN Summit of the Future is expected to offer the Global South nations ensure their priorities and perspectives are adequately represented in shaping future global policies.

 

Finance to Fraternity: Insights from 3rd Voice of Global South Summit Read Post »

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