Analysis

Will ASEAN Membership Be Turning Point for Timor-Leste’s Economy?

|

Suryo Bimantro, COGGS Intern

AFTER MORE THAN a decade as an observer and applicant, metal rich Timor-Leste is set to officially join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this year, with its membership scheduled to be formally ratified at the 47th ASEAN Summit in October 2025. Timor-Leste’s entrance into the Southeast Asian organization represents its decade-long struggle and progress as a “juvenile nation” that achieved national sovereignty and independence in the 2000s. Accepting Timor-Leste would also signify ASEAN’s emphasis on regional inclusivity and integration among nations within the region, despite significant economic and institutional disparities. This move would prioritize the development of Southeast Asian regionalism and unification above all else.

Such integration could potentially help improve Timor-Leste’s struggling economy. According to a 2025 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Timor-Leste is ranked as one of the poorest nations in the Southeast Asian region, with a total GDP of approximately $2.1 billion USD and a GDP per capita of only $1,490 USD. ASEAN membership could also bring viable solutions to the critical issues the country is currently facing.

(46th ASEAN Summit. Courtesy: The Star)

This article’s main purpose is to explain how Timor-Leste’s integration into ASEAN could offer opportunities for multilateral cooperation that would assist in national development and help address the challenges the nation continues to face. After all, multipolarity within ASEAN cannot be achieved if member countries focus solely on self-serving development.

ASEAN perceives its goal for economic cooperation as a priority for all its members without exclusion. This would provide Timor-Leste with the grand opportunity to learn from ASEAN states with longer experiences in maintaining and developing their economies. ASEAN has the capability to provide intensive training sessions for Timor-Leste’s government officials—sessions that provide expert insights and knowledge-sharing discussions within important subjects such as international trade, finance, tax management, resource management, and various other subjects that could help the Timor-Leste government to prepare its entry into the ASEAN economic framework, the next stage for its potential development within the Southeast Asian region itself.

Currently, this intensive training program has been done this year, specifically during the 11th–13th of March, 2025, in Timor-Leste’s capital city, Dili. This program involved several key actors, which include the Deputy Secretary-Director of the ASEAN Economic Community, the Asian Development Bank Country Director, the Malaysian Ambassador of Timor-Leste, the ASEAN Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Timor-Leste, and the rest are the ASEAN Secretariat staff, who are positioned as the trainers within the program. Every actor mentioned has the sole mission of preparing the economic and institutional readiness of Timor-Leste’s existing ministries and agencies as they finally integrate the nation into becoming a part of the ASEAN economic domain. If ASEAN’s intensive training program succeeds, it could bolster several solutions for some of Timor-Leste’s ongoing internal issues.

east timor, peace, hand, nation, background, banner, wallpaper 4k, colors, country, full hd wallpaper, cool backgrounds, ensign, flag, windows wallpaper, free wallpaper, desktop backgrounds, graphic, free background, 4k wallpaper 1920x1080, 4k wallpaper, wallpaper hd, hd wallpaper, icon, national, mac wallpaper, state, symbol, tourism, laptop wallpaper, beautiful wallpaper, travel

Beyond Oil & Gas

According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry of Timor-Leste, the country is suffering from an overreliance on gas and oil exports. Specifically, around 90% of Timor-Leste’s exports consist of gas and oil, with little room for other industries to participate in international trade. An overreliance on oil and gas may demonstrate a country’s wealth in natural resources, but it also reveals vulnerability and a lack of progress within a country’s economy. Fundamentally, globalization has made the world economically interconnected. If the prices of both oil and gas were to decrease significantly in the future due to the global transition toward clean and renewable energy, then Timor-Leste’s export revenues could suffer a downturn, causing a halt in its economic development.

This applies similarly if the prices of oil and gas were to increase, in the form of the infamous Dutch Disease—an economic phenomenon where an overreliance on a specific sector drives up a country’s currency value. This could alleviate the country’s poverty rate and stimulate internal development in the short term. However, in the long term, there’s a risk that it would allow cheap foreign imports to overtake the country’s industries, preventing the private sector from growing or competing fairly, while foreign businesses become powerful stakeholders and slowly monopolize the economy from within. The people of Timor-Leste would not only suffer significantly from higher poverty rates, but they would also face rising inflation, a lack of innovation and sustainable development, and a cycle of exploitation that is indirect in nature.

With ASEAN’s capacity-building program and intensive training sessions, member states could take advisory roles in managing Timor-Leste’s overreliance on oil and gas by helping the country discover new natural resources, develop industrial skills, implement human resource capacity-building methods, and pursue various other initiatives to strengthen Timor-Leste’s market diversification and improve its dwindling private sector.

To further increase the chances of success for these diversified markets, ASEAN member states could open trade barriers between Timor-Leste and themselves—or even call upon nations within the Asia-Pacific region, such as Japan and South Korea, to begin investing in Timor-Leste’s diversified markets while engaging in more bilateral or multilateral trade activities. What’s the point of diversifying an economy if you can’t even diversify your consumers?

Obviously, oil and gas industrial dependency won’t just disappear in the short term; this is why ASEAN economic cooperation must prove itself to be stable, efficient, and continuous in providing strong results with Timor-Leste’s ministries and agencies.

Tapping into Minerals

As mentioned previously, an overreliance on two natural resources wouldn’t aid Timor-Leste’s survivability in the long term before it eventually turns into a fallen state. This is why more markets, especially within the private sector, need to be formed to expand Timor-Leste’s international trade and human resource capacity—markets that will be formed from the rich and plentiful mineral resources within the lands of Timor-Leste itself.

According to a 2003 study by Francisco da Costa Monteiro, Director of Energy and Minerals within Timor-Leste, Timor-Leste’s natural resources are abundant, encompassing not only the vast oil and gas reserves within the land but also a variety of rich minerals discovered within Timor-Leste’s coastal environments. These minerals are divided into two categories—metallic and non-metallic—to simplify understanding.

 

Metallic Minerals Gold, copper, manganese, silver, and chromite.
Non-Metallic Minerals Sand, gravel, limestone, clay, bentonites, kaolinites, marble, gypsum, and phosphate.

The fact that Timor-Leste’s rich minerals are scattered throughout the country yet it could barely develop its economy proves the vast, untapped potential it currently has. Firstly, its metallic minerals could provide market ideas that could diversify the economy and expand trade flows with other countries.

 

christmas, decoration, angel hair, ornament, decor, gold, mobile wallpaper, phone wallpaper, iphone background, macro, closeup, gold, gold, mobile wallpaper, mobile wallpaper, mobile wallpaper, phone wallpaper, phone wallpaper, phone wallpaper, phone wallpaper, phone wallpaper

 

Gold Copper Manganese Silver Chromite
Gold could serve both as an export-oriented market and a domestic manufacturing market. A lot of developed countries see the value of gold in many luxury brands and jewelry industries.

 

ASEAN must remember to advise Timor-Leste’s development regarding their human resource capacity in manufacturing to ensure gold will not just solely be used for foreign extraction, but can also be used as a new job market for gold manufacturing domestically.

 According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), copper mining would reach an approximate number of 23.5 million tonnes within 2025, a 2.3% increase from 2024. This significant rise proves that copper mining could be a great asset for Timor-Leste’s developing economy. It would attract foreign investments, trade, and cooperation from both ASEAN and the entire global domain potentially.

 

Copper are used for manufacturing vehicles such as motorcycles and cars while also being a foundational material for phones and computers, objects that are central to the modern Southeast Asian contemporary culture nowadays.

 

Despite the harsh labor, this could prove to be a great economic diversification mechanism for Timor-Leste, though its sustainability over the future is questionable due to the rise of clean and renewable energy alternatives. That’s where the ASEAN economic cooperation comes in and discusses the issue with Timor-Leste.

 Another form of useful mineral that Timor-Leste’s officials could unearth to diversify it’s economy would be the manganese mineral, a mineral that could strengthen metallic materials such as steel, a very important mechanism to have within foreign aviation, shipment, and even military industries if properly maintained. Just like these other materials, silver holds a wide range of usage in terms of manufacturing itself. Silver is used to manufacture phones, computers, laptops, televisions, circuit boards, batteries, and so much more. It’s possible to improve upon a country’s trade and innovation, which is truly remarkable. Just like other materials here, chromite also serves as a hardening material for aerospace, aviation, transport, and other manufacturing industries.

Through these discoveries alone, Timor-Leste proves itself to be a hotspot for many manufacturing-based industries. Through ASEAN economic cooperation, ASEAN could assist in Timor-Leste’s maintenance of these valuable minerals, creating jobs in the mining sector, logistics, manufacturing, sales and marketing, shipment and trade, and even finance. This could raise a new wave of skilled workers who could improve their livelihoods every time minerals are extracted or manufactured—a true capacity-building program born from the country’s rich natural resources.

ASEAN must provide sufficient advisory not only on proper management but also by connecting Timor-Leste with potential trade partners within and outside the region to ensure that trade flows and revenues increase rather than remain stagnant. Besides trade partners, advisory efforts should also focus on talent building through education and training programs for the youth of Timor-Leste in order to prepare for the introduction of new technology and manufacturing-based businesses across the country.

The Case of Corruption

The last and most crucial problem that ASEAN could assist Timor-Leste with would be the cycle of corruption, which could potentially destabilize all these capacity-building efforts. According to the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) in 2024, Timor-Leste ranks 70th out of a total of 180 countries around the world in terms of corruption, proving it to be less corrupt in comparison to other countries—though this result might be due to the country’s small population.

Through ASEAN economic integration, Timor-Leste could potentially lower that ranking even further through ASEAN’s collaborative platform, ASEAN-PAC (Parties Against Corruption), which was previously labeled as SEA-PAC (Southeast Asian Parties Against Corruption) in 2004.

The collaborative platform serves as a regional cooperation mechanism that provides extensive knowledge-sharing on anti-corruption methods and strategies; training programs to develop skill sets to counter corruption schemes; exchanges of expertise between countries through certified and experienced personnel and officials to help implement anti-corruption strategies within Southeast Asia; and conferences to gather ideas and strategies among ASEAN member states to further anti-corruption development across the region.

If Timor-Leste does not view its integration into ASEAN-PAC as a possibility, then all potential revenue growth from mineral resources, international trade, and many of its diversified markets could be at risk from the grasp of internal corruption—especially given that the country upholds democracy as its primary form of governance.

The bigger the economy, the merrier the people. The merrier the people, the more confident they are in raising children. The more confident the people become in having children, the more the population increases. As the population increases, centralized supervision becomes harder to manage within a full-blown democracy. Immense population growth begins to exert more and more plurality of morals and ethics as society grows, creating more hidden blind spots for those intelligent enough to exploit vast revenues for themselves among thousands or even millions of others around them.

[ Suryo Bimantro is an intern at COGGS and based in Surabaya, Indonesia. Opinions expressed those are his own. ]

References:  

  1. https://asean.org/asean-secretariat-supports-timor-lestes-asean-integration-with-phase-2-of-capacity-building-programme/.

 

  1. Top Export-Import Countries. 2023. “Top Export-Import Countries.” Trade Information Portal. 2023. https://timor-lestetradeportal.com/id-id/site/display/808.

 

  1. ‌Da Costa Monteiro, Francisco, Vicenti Da, and Costa Pinto. 2003. “Exploring Timor-Leste: -Minerals Potential.” https://www.pecc.org/resources/minerals-a-energy/1264-exploring-timor-leste-minerals-potential-paper/file
  2. Chen, Jackson. 2025. “Global Copper Surplus to More than Double in 2025 – ICSG.” MINING.COM. April 30, 2025. https://www.mining.com/?p=1177704.

 

‌Woolwine, C.S. 2019. Cyclic. https://cms.kpk.go.id/storage/tinymce/uploads/pdf/1733102405_E-Booklet-ASEAN_PAC.pdf

 

Will ASEAN Membership Be Turning Point for Timor-Leste’s Economy? Read Post »

Vietnam’s Challenges to be Critical Mineral Powerhouse

|

Iftah Al Aqliyah

AS THE WORLD moves towards a green energy future, demand for critical minerals such as nickel, silicon, lithium, copper, and other rare earth elements (REE) is increasing because these are the key components in the production of products like electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and solar panels. Located in Southeast Asia, Vietnam, is a major market for China, the US, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. Beyond being a key market, the aspiring economic power also serves as a strategic partner in the region’s energy transition. The critical minerals project supports the development of green energy technology industries, boost environmental standards and place the nation in the map of global clean energy transition. This is evidenced by Vietnam’s commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 at the COP26 Summit in Glasgow and the receipt of funding through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) program amounting to US$15.5 billion, while also launching the Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8). However, Vietnam faces significant challenges in meeting domestic demand for critical minerals and ensuring sustainable management.

 

 

Increase in Critical Minerals in Vietnam

Vietnam’s participation in commitments under the Action program for Transition to Green Energy and Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions from Transport is driving major development in renewable energy in 2021-2050. On a regional scale, projections from APEC Outlook show that the expansion of clean energy generation and electric vehicles (EV) will increase demand for critical minerals such as nickel, copper, cobalt, lithium, silicon and rare earth elements (REE) in the Asia Pacific region, including Vietnam. Demand for critical minerals on a regional scale is expected to increase in 2031-2040 compared to 2020 by 4.7 times (Huy, 2023). According to Phung Quoc Huy et al. (2024) total critical minerals demand is expected to reach 415 kilotons (kt) from 2021 to 2030 and increase to 2,133 kt from 2031 to 2050, or 15 times the 2021 level. Silicon and copper are the minerals most in demand due to the expansion of solar energy and the construction of power grids. It is estimated that copper accounts for 60% of total mineral demand, particularly for transmission systems, wind turbines, and electric vehicles (Huy et al., 2024). In addition, the need for nickel, cobalt and lithium for electric vehicle batteries will increase, especially as the local automotive industry such as VinFast grows. Although Vietnam has the second largest REE potential in the world, its use is still not maximized in terms of value-added exploration, production, processing and export.

 

Challenges in Critical Minerals Management

Vietnam’s domestic processing capacity : The nation’s domestic processing capacity is still low despite having many mineral reserves. Production of nickel, cobalt and copper has not met the surging demand. According to statistics, Vietnam produced only 16,881 tons of copper in 2021, despite demand for copper reaching more than 260,000 tons during the 2021-2030 period (Huy et al., 2024). On the contrary, cobalt production in the country is still below 200 tons per year.

 

Infrastructure and Technology Limitations: Vietnam has not successfully mastered the refining technology of minerals such as REEs that require complex and expensive chemical processes. Most mining facilities in Vietnam focus on extraction, not downstream. This hinders Vietnam from developing domestic value and acting as a value-added global supplier (Hiep, 2023)

 

Weak Regulation in Vietnam:  The regulatory framework in Vietnam is still not strong and inconsistent in its implementation which hinders the overall development of the minerals sector. The complexity of licensing procedures, poor inter-agency coordination, and corrupt practices at the local and national levels exacerbate the investment and environmental monitoring situation. These conditions create hesitation for local and foreign investors (Dung et al., 2021).

 

Political Pressure and Dependence: Vietnam’s REE potential has attracted the attention of major countries such as the United States, China and Japan. For example, Vietnam signed an MoU with the US on a partnership for REE exploration and development (Nguyen et al., 2019). This  joint venture certainly offers benefits and investment opportunities, but there is a risk of external dependency and possible exploitation of natural resources without fair and sustainable technology transfer.

copper oil lamp, macro, decoration, vintage, tradition
A copper-made lamp.

 

Vietnam’s ability to manage critical minerals is crucial to the continued transition to renewable energy. Rising interest in lithium, cobalt, copper and REEs is a result of reducing carbon emissions. However, limited production, infrastructure and technology, and weak regulations are barriers to achieving certain targets. Therefore, Vietnam needs to make necessary refomrs by strengthening policies and building sustainable international cooperation.

 

(Iftah Al Aqliyah is an intern at COGGS and student at  Department of International Relations,  UPN “Veteran” Jawa timur University, Surabaya, Indonesia)

References

Dung, N. T. K. D., Luan, P. V., Chinch, V. T., & Duoe, T. V. (2021, November 10). An Overview of Rare Earth Ores Beneficiation in Vietnam. 10.29227/IM-2021-02-20

Guthrie, C. (2023, October 23). Rare earth arrests rock Vietnam’s critical minerals plans. Mining Magazine.

Hiep, L. H. (2023, November 8). Vietnam’s Rare Earth Ambitions: Economic and Strategic Drivers. FULCRUM. Retrieved Juli Jumat, 2025, from https://fulcrum.sg/vietnams-rare-earth-ambitions-economic-and-strategic-drivers/

Huy, P. Q. (2023). Estimation of Required Critical Minerals for Clean Energy Technology in the APEC Region and Risks of Supply Chain Disruption. Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378302856_Estimation_of_Required_Critical_Minerals_for_Clean_Energy_Technology_in_the_APEC_Region_and_Risks_of_Supply_Chain_Disruption

Huy, P. Q., Sweetnam, G. E., & Hien, T. T. (2024). Shifting Toward Clean Energy Technology: Assessing Vietnam Critical Minerals Demand and Domestic Resources. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 10.1088/1755-1315/1395/1/012001

Nguyen, N. B., Boruff, B., & Tonts, M. (2019, June 27). The Regulatory Framework and Minerals Development in Vietnam: An Assessment of Challenges and Reform. MDPI, 11. 10.3390/su11184861

Nguyen, U. (2023, April 13). Vietnam’s Rare Earth Mining Industry: An Overview. Vietnam Briefing. Retrieved July 25, 2025, from https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/rare-earth-mining-vietnam.html

 

Vietnam’s Challenges to be Critical Mineral Powerhouse Read Post »

Cryptocurrency in Global South Trade: The Iran Case Study Analysis | COGGS Intern | Read Now|

|

Vericko Dhuha Zahir Negara, COGGS Intern

[Abstract : This research looks at how cryptocurrency’s role is becoming more important as an alternative in international trade, especially for countries that are not well-supported by the usual global financial system. As the SWIFT network is being used more often as a tool for political reasons to apply sanctions and control economies, many countries particularly in the Global South are looking for alternative solutions. Cryptocurrency, which is based on blockchain technology, allows people to send money directly to each other without needing banks. This reduces reliance on traditional financial institutions, cuts down on costs, and makes it easier to send money across borders quickly. Using the World-Systems Theory and the concept of Decentralized Finance, this study shows how blockchain-based currencies give countries like Iran more control and stability by helping them avoid sanctions and manage their economy better. The research used a qualitative-descriptive approach, looking at information from academic papers, news articles, and reports from organizations to spot trends. The results show that cryptocurrency’s role helps trade happen in ways that traditional systems don’t allow, and it changes how global economics works by being a clear, fast, and politically neutral option compared to conventional systems. ]

 

INTERNATIONAL TRADE IS an important aspect for a nation to increase its economic growth. One of the biggest elements of international trade is the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication also known as SWIFT, which has been the backbone of banks from various nations. However, SWIFT is not a neutral system; it has been used as an international political tool in the form of sanctions and other economic limitations (Cipriani et al., 2023). SWIFT works as a safe communication provider between banks, because of that almost any transnational currency operates under SWIFT. As a result, anytime when a nation or company has limited actions by SWIFT it can result in an economic crisis or a bankruptcy. This phenomenon of economic limitations has increased over time due to SWIFT not being a neutral system. SWIFT has increasingly become a political control tool to give sanction and limit any country’s economic activities if that country is considered a threat. This results in cost issues and regulatory restrictions that blocks developing countries from reaching not only western market but also the global market to gain a higher profit. For example, most Global South nations are submitted to this system which creates unequal dependency and makes them

vulnerable to sanction and other political-economic pressure. For that reason, many nations and companies tried to find a way to do international trade without relying on SWIFT’s system. This led them to blockchain technology, which uses cryptocurrency that was invented by an unknown individual called Satoshi Nakamoto back in 2009. Blockchain eliminates the needs of banks correspondent, documents, and time needed. Cryptocurrency offers real-time transaction or remittance, low cost, and direct access from buyer to seller without relying on banks.

 

 

Theoretical Framework

This research was conducted using the World-System theory as a way of understanding the world as a hierarchically structured capitalist system, with a dominant core and an exploited periphery (Wallerstein, 2004). According to Wallerstein, the capitalist world system began around the 16th century in Europe, through colonial expansion, international trade, and the formation of modern nation-states. Since then, this system has continued to develop into a global system with one hegemony that switches over time. World-systems theory supports an interdisciplinary approach by integrating historical, political, economic, and cultural analysis within a measured framework. On top of that, this research will also apply the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) concept. DeFi is a new model in the finance world that utilizes blockchain technology and smart contracts to provide financial services without intermediaries like banks (Zetzsche et al., 2020). This technology allows users to access financial services by peer-to-peer with just the internet and digital wallet. DeFi allows users to avoid traditional or conventional ways of international transaction or remittance which is more costly and time-consuming. As a whole, DeFi is a model that changes how transnational finance activities work.

Methods

Every data was collected through in-depth literature studies, news articles, academic publications, and any documents related to blockchain, cryptocurrency, and SWIFT. On top of that, data analysis was carried out by identifying patterns, themes, and narratives that emerged from the collected data, which were then interpreted. This approach allows the author to describe things in detail while keeping it concise. In addition, the qualitative-descriptive method enables the author to remain adaptable to the different matters of the subject regarding international trade. This method aims to provide understanding of the dynamics of the phenomenon being studied.

bitcoin, cryptocurrency, blockchain, money, digital, crypto currency, block chain, black money, black digital, bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency, blockchain, blockchain, crypto currency, block chain

The  Case of Iran 

Global South countries’ challenges are often stacked on top of another with systemic issues, international actors interfering, lack of facilities or technology, and internal economic issues. This creates a demand for trusted and self-custodial currency which led to digital coin using Blockchain technology (Böhmecke-Schwafert & Moreno, 2023). Cryptocurrency and blockchain offer faster, cheaper, and more accessible cross-border transactions, such as remittances and trade, while avoiding international restrictions. Due to many Global South countries facing both internal and external trade challenges, this pushes them to switch to a currency that can avoid those challenges. The implementation of Blockchain in the Global South can improve the Global South’s position and profit as a raw material supplier within the global supply chain, rather than being limited by conventional trade systems. Blockchain’s transparency and traceability facilitate Global South in international trade especially for agriculture and natural resources (Eliason, 2022). Even with the risk of being hacked and losing digital coins, the trend of utilizing cryptocurrency is not slowing down, instead it creates other ways to store digital coins such as using cold wallets. Global south countries develop domestically controlled blockchain and support cryptocurrency legal matters to increase digital currency exposure and trust around the world. On top of that, blockchain and cryptocurrency should also support local manufacturers, SMEs, cross-border trade, and remittances among Global South citizens (Eliason, 2022).

Since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has been re-imposed on \economic sanctions. These sanctions primarily target Iran’s oil sector and financial system. As a result, Iran’s currency exchange rate has plummeted, while inflation has sky-rocketed. In this economic state, both the Iranian government and civilians have begun seeking alternative, more stable stores of value and exchange rates. One widely used solution is cryptocurrency. There are several key reasons why crypto has become so attractive to Iran. First, cryptocurrencies are used as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. Many Iranians store their wealth in crypto, which is considered more stable than conventional currencies. Second, cryptocurrency allows the government and businesses to evade international sanctions, particularly from the US. Since 2019, the government has officially supported Bitcoin mining, taking advantage of cheap domestic electricity. On top of that, Iran uses crypto as a digital currency for export commodities. In August 2022, Iran began using crypto directly to pay for imports. The government is also exploring the use of gold-backed digital coins with Russia to strengthen bilateral transactions and avoid the US dollar and SWIFT. This move by Iran sparked a response from the international community. The US government expanded its list of sanctioned entities, including companies in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Hong Kong that help Iran sell oil and launder money through crypto. The US Treasury Department has also increased cooperation with blockchain intelligence agencies to track suspicious transactions. However, the effectiveness of this law enforcement remains limited as Iran actively seeks new ways to evade detection, including through anonymous decentralized finance protocols. Because of that, International policy needs to be more integrated to both support cryptocurrency as an alternative for international relations actors to have a new trade system that is operated under blockchain technology.

Conclusion

Cryptocurrency has caused a big shift in how countries trade internationally, especially for those facing difficulties in the current global financial system. SWIFT, which is a system that has been used a lot in international banking, is sometimes controlled by politics and can limit certain countries from accessing the global market, especially those in the Global South. Cryptocurrency offers a different way for these countries to take part in the economy. It works through blockchain technology, which doesn’t need third parties like banks. This makes transactions faster, cheaper, and more open. This is especially helpful for countries that are under sanctions or facing financial limits, like Iran. Cryptocurrency also helps more people and businesses around the world to take part in financial activities. With decentralized finance, people can connect directly with others without needing traditional banks. This is especially useful for small businesses and even governments. On top of that, blockchain’s ability to track transactions helps in areas like farming and exporting raw materials, which are important for many countries in the Global South. This makes their role in global trade stronger. Though there are risks like hacking and unclear rules, more people are using cryptocurrency, showing how important it is. In the end, cryptocurrency is a brand new technology that gives people more control over their money and challenges the conventional financial systems. It creates new paths for trade that are fairer, more open, and not controlled by political power or banks.

 

[ Vericko Dhuha Zahir Negara is a COGGS Intern and Student at International Relations
Faculty of Social and Political Sciences National Development, University “Veteran” of East Java, Surabaya, Indonesia]

 

References

  1. Marco Cipriani, Linda S. Goldberg, & Gabriele La Spada (2023). Financial Sanctions, SWIFT, and the Architecture of the International Payment System.
  2. Slatvinska Valeria, Demchenko Vitaliia, Tretiak Kateryna, Hnatyuk Rostyslav, & Yarema Oleg (2022). The Impact of Blockchain Technology on International Trade and Financial Business. DOI:10.13189/ujaf.2022.100111
  3. Patrick Schueffel (2021). DeFi: Decentralized Finance- An Introduction and Overview
  4. Dirk A. Zetzsche, DouglasW.Arner, & Ross P. Buckley (2020). Decentralized Finance
  5. Immanuel Wallerstein (2004). World-System Analysis An Introduction.
  6. Rose Mahdavieh (2022). State Adoption of Cryptocurrency: a Case Study Analysis of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela.
  1. Moritz Böhmecke-Schwafert & Eduardo García Moreno (2023). Exploring Blockchain-based Innovations for Economic and Sustainable Development in the GlobalSouth: A Mixed-Method Approach based on Web Mining and Topic Modeling.
  1. Antonia Eliason (2022). BLOCKCHAIN, TRADE, AND THE GLOBAL SOUTH:

ENTRENCHING SUPPLY CHAIN ROLES.

  1. Reuter (2025). S. issues additional Iran-related sanctions, Treasury website shows.
  2. Arab News (2022). How Iran is cashing in on cryptocurrencies to evade US sanctions.

 

Cryptocurrency in Global South Trade: The Iran Case Study Analysis | COGGS Intern | Read Now| Read Post »

India and GCC Deepen Economic and Strategic Ties

|

India and GCC Deepen Economic and Strategic Ties

Balaji Chandramohan

As India expands its politico-economic reach in the international system, especially in Asia’s geopolitics – it is looking for economic partners in the Gulf region as part of its aspirations. This will be welcomed by the countries in the region collectively, as they tend to recognize New Delhi’s credentials as a responsible power in the comity of nations. Institutionally, cooperation will be strengthened between India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which will have vital significance for India. The GCC is a union of six countries in the Gulf region — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. The council is the largest trading bloc for India.

 

Experts note that the Gulf region’s substantial oil and gas reserves are of immense importance for India’s energy security and its growing population’s demands. India’s economic ties with the GCC have been steadily increasing, especially due to the growth in oil imports.

On the other hand, India’s exports to the GCC have shown steady growth in recent times. India exports a wide range of products to the region, including food processing, jewellery, synthetic fibers, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods, all offering substantial potential.

Further, in an effort to improve their trade relations, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have agreed to pursue a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two regions. Negotiations are set to increase in the upcoming months.

Meanwhile, India has started important geo-economic outreach to the Gulf region, which includes facilitating financial connectivity, such as integrating India’s UPI system with the UAE’s JAYWAN card. The RuPay card is also being considered.

Investment opportunities from Sovereign Wealth Funds in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait are being closely observed from New Delhi. It is also a fact that the Gulf region forms an important cog in the world’s geo-economics, as it connects Europe to the markets in Asia and to the wider Indo-Pacific region.

Additionally, the GCC countries collectively host a large Indian expatriate community, facilitating cooperation in terms of trade and investment. Through collaborative initiatives in trade, investment, infrastructure development, open exchange of information, and people-to-people ties, this partnership not only bolsters economic growth within the region and India, but also contributes to a more stable and prosperous global economy.

India and the GCC also share a desire for political stability and security in the region, which may help India expand its outreach to other regions globally in terms of the economy. India recognizes that the Gulf region is one of the most volatile in Asia, where special focus is required if it is to strengthen its credentials as a stable economic partner.

 

 

Institutional exchanges between India and GCC countries began with the first-ever India-GCC Political Dialogue, held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly on September 26, 2003. Both sides recognized the significance of this dialogue, which marked a new era in India-GCC relations at the start of this century.

Subsequently, India and the GCC signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the Mechanisms of Consultations on September 10, 2022, during Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar’s visit to Riyadh (September 10-12, 2022) to facilitate better trade. This was followed by the first India-GCC Senior Officials Meeting, held on March 20, 2023, in Riyadh.

The dialogue also highlighted emerging opportunities in education and connectivity, especially through the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which presents significant potential for growth by linking energy-rich markets of Europe to Asia.

In 2024, the first-ever India–GCC Joint Ministerial Meeting for Strategic Dialogue was held on September 9, 2024, in Riyadh, emphasizing the importance of combining geo-economics with strategy.

The ministerial meeting also adopted a Joint Action Plan 2024-2028 for undertaking various joint activities in diverse areas, including health, trade, security, agriculture and food security, transportation, energy, culture, and others.

India’s outreach to the GCC was further strengthened when Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar visited Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from September 8-9, 2024, to attend the first-ever India–GCC Joint Ministerial Meeting for Strategic Dialogue, which had important economic implications. This marked the inaugural meeting between India and the GCC at the Foreign Ministers level, attended by the Foreign Ministers of all GCC countries and Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the GCC.

Dr. Jaishankar’s participation in the multilateral dialogue underscored a significant qualitative leap in bilateral and multilateral relations between India and the Arab Gulf states. The India–GCC Joint Ministerial meeting emphasized the growing economic partnership between India and the GCC, focusing on collaboration in economic trade, foreign investment, infrastructure development, and people-to-people ties.

The meeting envisaged the Joint Action Plan for 2024-2028, outlining various joint activities in sectors such as health, trade, security, agriculture, food security, transportation, energy, and culture. The scope of cooperation may expand further, subject to mutual consensus.

The Indian Foreign Minister also used the opportunity to hold several bilateral meetings with the Foreign Ministers of GCC countries. Jaishankar pointed out that the GCC is a “cornerstone of global energy supply” and called for deepening collaboration, which he said would help “stabilize markets, drive innovation, and enhance energy security.”

Following the Indian External Affairs Minister’s visit, the UAE reinforced its economic priorities with India, as Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, visited India from September 9-10, 2024, at the invitation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

During his visit, he met with President Droupadi Murmu and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Besides the political significance, the visit included participation in a business forum in Mumbai, strengthening economic ties between India and the UAE. Four significant agreements were signed between Indian and UAE entities in the energy sector.

As part of the state visit, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the operations and maintenance of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant between Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (ENEC) and Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) was proposed.

In addition to multilateral cooperation, bilateral relations between India and the UAE have seen a notable upswing in recent years, with approximately 3.5 million Indians forming the largest expatriate group in the UAE. The two countries are among each other’s top trading partners, with bilateral trade reaching USD 85 billion in the 2022-23 financial year. India’s relations with the Arab Gulf countries are a vital pillar of its foreign policy, given the shared interests between the two sides, the presence of about 9 million Indian workers in the Gulf, and significant trade exchange. Security and strategic relations, as well as energy provision, remain crucial areas of collaboration.

As both India and the Gulf States look towards the future, there is growing anticipation of further deepening ties to advance economic cooperation, regional stability, and international security.

In conclusion, as India aspires to a better position as a global economic powerhouse, it will naturally look to the Gulf countries as part of its economic aspirations. In that context, as the GCC countries also recognize India’s emergence as one of the fastest-growing economies and a market for their exports, they will increasingly gravitate towards New Delhi. Therefore, India–GCC economic cooperation will translate into substantial geo-economic cooperation, which may strengthen existing political relations in the years to come. 

[ The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of COGGS. ] 

India and GCC Deepen Economic and Strategic Ties Read Post »

Why BRICS, Global South need Angola?

|

[ The piece is syndicated from The Week, followed by Angolan President João Lourenço’s maiden visit to India. The title of the article differs from the article published in the Indian magazine. Author is a fellow and content editor at COGGS. ]

Ayanangsha Maitra

POWER MAY ONCE have been spilled from the barrel of a gun, but Angola is showing the energy-starved Global South that today, it flows from the barrel of crude oil. As Angolan President João Lourenço visited India on his maiden trip to India earlier this month (May 2-4), two nations from opposite ends of the world found themselves co-architects of a new multipolar order.

President Lourenço—a former freedom fighter who took up arms to liberate the motherland from Portuguese colonial rule—reached New Delhi at a time when both countries are pushing to reform global institutions and rebalance power dynamics. His visit is more than ceremonial; it signalled the elevation of India-Angola ties into a deep partnership grounded in energy, defence, technology, and developmental aspirations.


India is already one of Angola’s largest buyers of oil and gas. Now, the relationship is expanding far beyond hydrocarbons. Following bilateral talks, both countries committed to deep cooperation in digital public infrastructure, space technology, defence, diamond processing, healthcare, and critical minerals. India has offered a $200 million defence credit line to modernise Angola’s armed forces and will help train its military personnel.

Sitting on the southwestern coast of Africa,  Angola is working to reduce its economic dependence on oil by attracting investments from China, the UAE, and Portugal, particularly in infrastructure, ports, railways, and energy. India, too, sees an opportunity: the potential introduction of Indian diesel locomotives and the expansion of Angola’s railways—especially into mineral-rich regions—could be transformative. As India’s Economic Envoy Dammu Ravi noted, “There is a possibility to introduce Indian diesel locomotives and also expand the railway network interior, north-south and east-west and leading into the areas of their minerals, which are very important for them in terms of logistics.”
 
Despite $4.2 billion in bilateral trade, Angola enjoys a major surplus. India imports around $3.5 billion—mostly oil—while exporting less than $700 million in goods such as medicines, meat, textiles, cotton, chemicals,  leather items, tractors, and vehicles. Angola sends iron, copper, aluminium, and other minerals in return, apart from energy. Reducing this imbalance will require India to push for better market access and explore investment-led growth in Angola.

Angola is habitat to around 8,000 people of Indian origin and has recently implemented visa-free entry for Indian citizens to promote tourism and business. The historical links are not just symbolic. Goa and Angola, once colonies under Portuguese rule, share cultural resonances. Pandurang Shirodkar, the first speaker of the Goa legislative assembly and an early supporter of Angola’s independence, was imprisoned and deported to Angola by the colonial regime—an overlooked but powerful connection.
India inspired and supported Angola’s liberation movement, and post-independence, India  backed the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA). The two are vocal at the forums like Non-Alignment Movement.

Unlike India, Angola’s real soft power doesn’t lie in cultural exports like Bollywood or the Taj Mahal. Instead, it lies in Sonangol, its oil giant. Formed in 1976, the state-owned Sonangol is now Africa’s second-largest oil producer and one of its most diversified corporations, with stakes in telecoms, shipping, engineering, and even shipbuilding. The company’s PAENAL shipyard hosts Africa’s largest heavy-lifting crane—a symbol of Angola’s industrial ambition. India is already partnering on key infrastructure projects such as the Moçâmedes Railway and sees potential for deeper collaboration in satellite technology, where ISRO could play a future role. Angola currently works with Russia and France on space applications, but India’s affordable space programme offers an attractive alternative.

Angola also holds growing geopolitical relevance. As chair of the African Union—whose entry into the G20 was strongly backed by India—Luanda is poised to shape continental strategies. Its ties within the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) also give it leverage in Latin America, especially Brazil. The cultural and strategic alignment with lusophone nations puts Angola at the crossroads of continents and makes a link between Latin America and Africa.
 
Moreover, Angola’s recent role as a mediator in the Rwanda- DR Congo peace talks and President Lourenço’s strong condemnation of the Pahalgam terror attack highlight its emergence as a responsible global actor. As Angola discovers new oil fields, India’s expertise in refining, transport, and energy infrastructure could play a vital role in translating resources into growth.
 
Angola’s participation in the India-led Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, Big Cat Alliance and Global Biofuels Alliance would be a transformative episode. Yet the challenge remains: to ensure this relationship doesn’t plateau at trade. Without active investment, deeper cultural exchange, and expanded cooperation, passive trade imbalances could undercut long-term goodwill. This is the moment to build a robust, reciprocal trade partnership—one that connects Luanda and New Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Mysore, Calcutta and Goa not just through products, but through values, and opportunity. Angola’s position within BRICS—attending summits and maintaining separate ties with each of the BRICS nations—further cements its strategic weight. If BRICS expands further in Africa, Angola could become a cornerstone in fulfilling the energy and development needs of the Global South. Private companies from Russia and India should exercise a greater role to make the nation glitter, by penetrating into areas like agri-tech.

However, to address the persistent trade imbalance, India must seek greater market access in Angola and across the region. A passive trade dynamic risks undermining the healthy and warm relationships between the two aspiring global south powers.

 

 

Why BRICS, Global South need Angola? Read Post »

President Trump in Saudi, UAE, Qatar: What Gulf States Want from the US?

|

Ayanangsha Maitra

The US PRESIDENT, Donald Trump, will emplane for a three-nation state visit, with Saudi Arabia as the first stop on May 13 (Tuesday). The Republican President will then go to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, two of the non-NATO yet prime security partners of the US. During his visit, which runs through May 16, various announcements, negotiations, and strategic decisions are expected. Whether Persian Gulf to be called by the same name – his visit will bring clarity.

Although the visit comes amid ongoing regional crises  in Gaza and Iran, but the agendas will be on economic deals rather than immediate diplomatic breakthroughs.  During President Trump’s Middle East visit, talks on Gaza, Ukraine, and Iran will be tabled. Meanwhile, Muscat has successfully concluded 4th round of informal talks between Tehran and Washington. The US could raise Oman Talks issue here too. During the middle-east visit, Trump’s agenda features major announcements in trade, oil, defense, nuclear energy, and technology, as Gulf leaders actively compete to secure American favour and future cooperation by offering substantial deals and investment commitments. In March, Trump said he would visit Saudi Arabia if it invests $1 trillion in the US. Saudi Arabia did not confirm this amount. But in January, the Kingdom said it would increase trade and investment with the US by $600 billion over four years. There could be more investment in coming years.

 

Gulf States want the US to confirm its security support for the region. Last year, the US and Saudi Arabia nearly finished a major defense and trade agreement. The talks stopped because Saudi Arabia wanted Israel to agree to a plan for Palestinian statehood. The Kingdom of Saudi wants US help to build a civil nuclear program. The talks are delayed because Saudi Arabia wants to enrich uranium in its own country. The US and Israel worry this could lead to nuclear weapons. Uranium can be used for weapons if enriched to high levels.

Saudi Arabia wants to depend less on oil. It still needs to sell oil at good prices to pay for this change. Price drops, US tariffs, and threats could make this harder. Trump wants oil prices to stay high. Saudi Arabia also wants high oil prices to help its economy grow.

 

 

Detailed close-up image of a map focusing on Middle East and North Africa.

Each Gulf nation is leveraging its financial power and personal ties with Trump to pledge multibillion-dollar investments in the U.S. economy, purchase American-made weaponry, and expand partnerships in advanced sectors, all aimed at strengthening their strategic alliance with Washington and maximizing their own national interests.

 

A stable Middle East is the need of the West as well as global south – not just the middle east. It helps lower migration, keeps energy markets steady, and limits the spread of extremist ideas. President Trump will be accompanied  by a  business delegation who will seize investment opportunities across sectors.

 

Education has been a key part of Saudi-US ties. The King Abdullah Scholarship Program has sent thousands of Saudi students to study in the United States. American students have also studied in Saudi Arabia through programs like the Fulbright exchange and partnerships with US universities. The US remains important for Saudi Arabia, especially in areas like energy transition, clean technology, and digital transformation.

 

Since 1974, six US presidents have visited Saudi Arabia. These visits show Saudi Arabia’s lasting role as a stabilizing force in a region often facing conflict. Presidential visits to Saudi Arabia are a tradition that began after the country was unified by King Abdulaziz Al-Saud in 1932. In 1945, President Franklin D. Roosevelt met King Abdulaziz after World War II, marking the start of close ties.

 

In 1957, King Saud became the first Saudi king to visit the US, meeting President Eisenhower. This visit focused on finding long-term solutions for the region and led to efforts to strengthen the Saudi military. King Faisal visited President Johnson in 1966 and President Nixon in 1971. In 1974, the US and Saudi Arabia created a joint economic commission to work together on industry, education, technology, and farming. In the same year, President Nixon reciprocated the visit to Saudi Arabia, forming the growing ties.

 

In 1982, Vice President George H. W. Bush visited Riyadh to offer condolences after King Khalid’s death, highlighting the personal side of the relationship. In 2002, the two countries started the Saudi-US Strategic Dialogue during King Abdullah’s visit to President George W. Bush in Texas, focusing on cooperation in counterterrorism, energy, education, and the economy. In 2012, the GCC-US Strategic Forum began, with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton attending the first meeting in Riyadh, raising the Gulf Cooperation Council’s role in US regional plans. In 2017, President Trump visited Riyadh, holding three major summits: the Arab Islamic American Summit, the US-Saudi Bilateral Summit, and the US-GCC Cooperation Council Summit.

UAE

The main objectives of President Donald Trump’s visit to the United Arab Emirates , in the second leg of middle east tour, is to secure major economic agreements and investments that align with his “America First” or Make America Great Again agenda. Trump aims to attract substantial new investments from the UAE and other Gulf states into the U.S. economy, particularly from sovereign wealth funds, to showcase job creation and bolster domestic manufacturing ahead of the 2026 election cycle. On the other hand, AI is one of the main trending issue between the two. The US and the United Arab Emirates are deepening their cooperation in artificial intelligence through major joint investments, technology partnerships, and government agreements-highlighted by multi-billion-dollar deals between Emirati firms like MGX and G42 and U.S. companies such as Microsoft, as well as ongoing efforts to develop shared principles and a government-to-government memorandum of understanding to ensure AI is used safely, securely, and for mutual economic growth.

 

Explore the dynamic cityscape of Abu Dhabi featuring a modern bridge and skyline over tranquil waters.

 

 

 

In March, the UAE announced a $1.4 trillion investment plan over ten years. This money will go to oil, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy. US investments already add up to $1 trillion, according to US officials.

Economic and Investment Deals: The UAE is expected to announce significant investment commitments, with reports suggesting pledges totaling up to $1.4 trillion over the next decade, focusing on sectors such as energy, technology, and defense.

Defense and Technology Agreements: The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, is likely to commit to major purchases of American defense systems and technology, supporting both U.S. industry and regional security.

Energy Cooperation: Discussions may include increasing oil supplies and potential relaxation of U.S. export controls on energy and technology, as well as nuclear energy cooperation.

Geopolitical Alignment: Trump is expected to press the UAE to align more closely with U.S. interests in its strategic competition with China and to support U.S. positions on regional conflicts, including those involving Iran and the Israel-Gaza situation.

The visit will be highly ceremonial, with the UAE aiming to demonstrate its importance as a U.S. partner and to maximize its own leverage in bilateral relations. The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, views Trump’s return to office as a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to secure long-term economic and security advantages amid a prolonged trade war between US and China.

Qatar

Trump’s state visit to Qatar is seen as a “crescendo” in U.S.-Qatari relations, with both nations eager to showcase their partnership and announce new agreements across defense, trade, education, health, and technology. The Al Thanis have gifted President Trump a luxury Boeing 747-8 jet for temporary use as Air Force One -which is yet to be considered for acceptance.

Qatar’s diplomatic role in the region, its close ties with Syria’s leadership, and its emergence as a multinational business hub all position Doha as a critical player in Trump’s Middle East strategy. Needless to say, it’s Doha that played the most constructive role in the negotiation between the US and Taliban. Security is on the focus too. Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base is the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East.

A detailed close-up of the Qatar national flag showcasing its unique design and colors.

 

President Trump’s whirlwind three-nation middle east tour spotlights fierce regional competition for the US favour, with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar leveraging mega-investments and defense deals to secure their strategic interests. As economic ambitions and security pledges dominate the agenda, Trump’s visit is bound to reshape alliances and recalibrate the balance of power in the Middle East region.

 

President Trump in Saudi, UAE, Qatar: What Gulf States Want from the US? Read Post »

Tariff Crisis a Wake-up call for Global South – Unite or Perish | Mohammed Saqib |

|
  • Mohammed Saqib

THE US PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s recent sweeping tariff agenda represents perhaps the most aggressive trade policy initiative in modern history. It is another sign of U.S. arrogance and unilateralism that has sent shockwaves across global markets. The staggering tariffs on U.S. imports threaten a trade disruption, destabilizing the global economy. These measures will likely damage supply chains, cause inflation, lead to global market volatility, and disproportionately harm the Global South members.

The current tariff crisis is a wake-up call — unite or perish. It presents itself as not only a challenge, but also an opportunity for a unified Global South response, one that amplifies the voice and influence of developing nations in shaping international economic governance.

 

China faces punitive tariffs of up to a bizarre 245 percent, while India, though in a comparatively low position at 26 percent (currently on a 90-day hold), is in a precarious state between strategic autonomy and economic pragmatism.

The United States may label India “tariff king” for its trade practices, but it hypocritically imposes tariff burdens on nearly all its trade partners, regardless of their development status. This approach seems to be a strategy to reestablish unilateral U.S. dominance in global trade governance, in the guise of efforts to address trade deficits or protect American jobs.

The announced tariff on global imports shifts from targeted pressure to aggressive economic nationalism. Countries in the Global South, intricately linked to Chinese manufacturing networks, are bracing for a significant fallout.

Amid this economic chaos, the White House is using intimidation tactics. Policies are announced, held and withdrawn by the hour. Some nations are being tempted by offers of preferential market access from the United States in exchange for reducing their economic ties with China. However, countries should look at historical examples that strongly advise against falling into the trap of opportunism.

Negotiating individual deals with the United States may falsely suggest secure national interests but actually weaken collective bargaining power. Bilateral agreements offer neither security nor sustainability in a system that allows unilateral changes to rules. Global South members must understand that such deals can undermine their collective negotiating strength.

India and China, the fastest-growing large economies with a combined GDP of more than 22 trillion U.S. dollars and nearly 35 percent of the global manufacturing capacity, possess significant economic leverage. Their collaboration can potentially create substantial benefits for both themselves and the broader developing world.

By working together, the two countries can establish vital market access reciprocity, develop an alternative financial framework, harmonize technical standards and coordinate resources effectively for the Global South. This constructive partnership can pave the way for more equitable global economic governance. Moreover, accelerating de-dollarization and strengthening frameworks like the BRICS and New Development Bank could enhance their financial autonomy.

While India-China coordination is essential for an effective response, the broader Global South must be engaged. The Bandung Conference in 1955 and the WTO Bali Ministerial Conference in 2013 demonstrated the potential for South-South cooperation.

Developing nations can counter U.S. economic coercion and amplify their influence in international economic governance with solidarity, and India-China coordination is crucial. When these giants speak as one, the world will indeed listen.

 [ Mohammed Saqib is an Economist and  Convenor of COGGS. The article is syndicated from Xinhua News Agency. ] 

Tariff Crisis a Wake-up call for Global South – Unite or Perish | Mohammed Saqib | Read Post »

Prez Trump’s Tariff to Reframe Global Commerce?

|

Ayanangsha Maitra

THROUGH A CASCADE of reforms on both the domestic and global fronts, President Donald Trump’s honeymooning administration of the US has been rapidly setting a legacy built on a personalized vision of governance and a rebranded nationalism – Make America Great Again. Tariffs, President Trump’s  most favoured tool of economic statecraft, serve as both the emblem of this approach and its proving ground—nowhere more vividly than in his stance toward China. The announcement of 245 per cent tariff on China is just a threat to the nation alone but to other competitive economies as well.

For the uninitiated,  the US goods trade with China rose to $582.4 billion in 2024. On the other hand the US goods imports from China in 2024 valued  $438.9 billion, up 2.8 percent ($12.1 billion) from 2023, according to the secretariat of USTR. In 2024, the US recorded a goods trade deficit of $295.4 billion with China.

 

crane, cargo, industry, dock, harbour, loading, delivery, trade, freight, machine, unloading, technology, shipyard, structure, lift, industrial, construction, mechanical, work, equipment, lifting, metal, heavy, steel, hoist, machinery, block and tackle, weight, load, strength

When President Donald Trump declared “the ball is in China’s court,” he cast the trade war in the language of sport—poised between chess-like strategy and the fluid urgency of football or cricket. China, like a batsman under hostile bowling or a team defending in extra time, faces the burden of response amid shifting rules and uneven ground. Yet in such high-stakes game, success lies not merely in reaction, but in redefining the field itself. While announcing such a move, the US administration accused Beijing of deliberately restricting main high-tech materials—such as gallium, germanium, and antimony—critical to the military, aerospace, and semiconductor sectors. In a retaliatory move, China intensified its control by suspending exports of six heavy rare earth metals and rare earth magnets.

 

President Xi Jinping’s South East State Visit

Over a state dinner in Malaysia, Chinese President Xi Jinping called China a collaborative partner ready to stand with Southeast Asia amid tensions over trade. During his five-day state visit to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia—economies likely affected by U.S. tariffs—Xi pushed a message of free trade, regional unity, and economic cooperation. 

Backed by China’s manufacturing power and control over key rare earth exports, Beijing signed new deals, including a joint railway project with Vietnam and increased market access for Vietnamese goods. On the other hand, China has been expanding diplomatic outreach to Europe, Japan, and South Korea to avoid isolation and stabilize supply chains. While the U.S. enters the trade war from a defiant economic position, China has been quietly preparing for years—leveraging diplomacy, trade, and strategic resources to counter U.S. hegemony in the trade.

How Much on What? 

The newly announced US tariffs represent one of the most aggressive trade actions in recent years. This has hard-hitting consequences for consumers as well as businesses. Aimed primarily at curbing Chinese imports and boosting domestic production, the tariff hike impacts a wide range of  products—from essential medical supplies to electronics and garments. As per The New York Times, the updated tariff structure includes some eye-popping figures: syringes and needles face a massive 245% tariff – while lithium-ion batteries are hit with 173%. Even seafood like squid isn’t spared, slapped with a 170% tariff. Clothing items such as woolen sweaters now carry a 169% tariff, and household goods like plastic dishes and toasters are taxed at 159% and 150% respectively.

High-tech and electronics items also take a hit. Electric vehicles are subject to a 148% tariff, toys and puzzles at 145%, and semiconductors—critical for nearly all modern devices—are taxed at 70%. Even daily-use items like aluminum foil (75%), car wheels (73%), and door hinges (67%) are affected. Even Laptops, now carry a 20% tariff.

A 245-percent tariff will make it impossible for China to sell to its largest market – the costs on both economies will be unimaginably high. But China is defiant and ready to fight whatever Washington announces.  China under Xi Jinping has indeed mastered the art of  negotiating trade terms and diplomacy, leveraging both strategic diplomacy and economic muscle to its advantage.

China’s diversification away from U.S. agricultural products extends well beyond soybeans, encompassing a broad range of farm goods and other key commodities. Amid trade war, Beijing’s strategic move involves shifting import sources, boosting domestic production, and employing trade and regulatory measures to reduce reliance on the U.S. and enhance food and energy security.

China has systematically reduced imports of several major U.S. agricultural products by sourcing from alternative countries and increasing domestic output:

 

 

Corn and Sorghum: China has sharply cut U.S. corn imports, which fell from $2.6 billion in 2023 to $561 million in 2024, while increasing purchases from Brazil, which has become China’s top corn supplier. Sorghum is also imported as a corn substitute, often from countries other than the US.

Meat and Poultry: Imports of U.S. beef, pork, and poultry have been curtailed significantly, with Beijing imposing tariffs and non-tariff barriers. For example,  beef and poultry exports from the US to China have been halted or sharply reduced through these measures. China has also increased domestic livestock production and diversified meat imports from other markets.

Wheat and Barley: China imports wheat and barley partly for animal feed, with barley imports rising due to its use in feed and brewing. 

In a strategic move, Beijing has diversified cotton imports. Vegetable oil sourcing from Russia and other countries have also been part of this diversification strategy. Imports of dairy items and aquatic goods have been affected by tariffs and trade policies immensely. China is booting up domestic production and sourcing from alternative suppliers to reduce dependency on the  U.S.

Fruits and Vegetables are also included in China’s tariff hikes and import levies on U.S. products, encouraging diversification toward other countries.

 

A colorful wicker basket filled with fresh grapes, bananas, and apples on a wooden table.

China is increasing LNG imports from Russia, Qatar, Australia, and Malaysia while sharply reducing U.S. LNG imports due to tariffs and trade barriers. For instance, no U.S. LNG was imported in March 2025, with Russian LNG exports to China rising by 3.3% in 2024.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas: China sources crude oil mainly from Saudi Arabia and Russia, and natural gas from multiple countries to avoid dependence on any single supplier or route, enhancing energy security.

Since 2018, China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on about $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and food products, including soybeans, corn, sorghum, wheat, meat, aquatic products, cotton, fruit, dairy, and vegetables.

Food Security Laws: Implementation of robust food security laws aims at reducing waste and increasing domestic production capacity to lessen import dependence.

China has strengthened import arrangements with countries like Brazil, Russia, and others in Latin America and Asia to replace U.S. agricultural products and energy supplies.

 

The U.S.–China trade war under President Donald Trump has reached  a turning point in global trade. The 245 percent tariff on Chinese goods shows the U.S. taking a strong stand to protect its industries and adjust the trade deficit. But China is not backing down. Instead, it’s roaring loudly. From the domains like food and energy to key materials across high-value sectors as well as essential ones, China is working to build long-term strength. This trade conflict is not just about numbers or tariffs -it is about setting the rules of the game in geoeconomics.

[ Ayanangsha Maitra is New Delhi based Editor, Contents, COGGS] 

Watch Related COGGS Discussion  and Subscribe to the YouTube channel

 

Prez Trump’s Tariff to Reframe Global Commerce? Read Post »

USAID Cut Widens Multipolarity in South, East Asia? 

|

 

  • Ayanangsha Maitra

MOST OF humanity in the world has lost in malaria or deadly deceases like tuberculosis – not the war. This is exactly why the USAID earned its reputation in the Global South by winning those wars and eradicating some of them absolutely and although it was an effective tool for the USA for excreting his mighty soft power, or say smart power. The United States Agency for International Development is better known by her nickname and highly popular in the low earning economies of the South and South East Asia for plenty of reason but mostly for reshaping the fate of health, education, and other humanitarian programs in the region. 

The agency, symbolized by colours mirroring the American flag – white, red, and blue – operates on the  “3Ds” framework: Diplomacy, Development, and Defense. In a dramatic move, the US President Donald Trump administration’s drastic cuts led to the abolition of 83% of USAID’s humanitarian programs around the geographies of the world. The Global South will feel the heat of the USAID restrictions, especially in the front of humanitarian assistance and long-term development initiatives. A host of INGOs and NGOs spread across the continents are forced to halt critical services even in the areas like health and nutrition, which are vital for vulnerable populations in developing countries. If USAID funding were halted for even a year, about 23 economies could experience shocks exceeding 1% of their Gross National Income, with some countries facing declines of over 3%. This is particularly critical for low-income nations that rely heavily on the U.S. aid say for example Nepal and Afghanistan. The cessation of support for health initiatives, such as those targeting malaria and HIV/AIDS, poses severe risks. For instance, the withdrawal of USAID support in regions like Myanmar could lead to a resurgence of diseases previously under control, threatening millions of lives in the impulsive nation, ruled by the junta. With USAID funding cuts impacting the World Food Programme, humanitarian aid delivery has been severely hampered, particularly in these two regions facing drought and conflict. South and South East Asia – both regions are leaders in  agriculture and the both are also improving in the fisheries sector. 

USAID: The Genesis and Programme

In 1961, at the height of the Cold War, President Kennedy incepted USAID via executive order to counter Soviet influence abroad, based on the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act. Congress formalized the agency as an independent agency in 1998, placing it within the executive branch but under the policy direction of the Secretary of State. Congress funds the agency every year. Under the Trump administration in 2025, the agency’s staff was significantly reduced, from over 10,000 employees to just a few hundred, with thousands more placed on administrative leave. USAID provides most of the U.S. aid for development and humanitarian needs around the world. In 2023, the agency allocated about $44 billion to 160 countries. Most of that money went to Europe and Eurasia, and sub-Saharan Africa. The embattled nation Ukraine received the largest share, almost 37% of the total. Several Global South countries rely on US foreign assistance for a substantial portion of their budgets.

The shutdown of USAID programs is likely to negatively impact America’s relations with several South and Southeast Asian nations. The reduction of USAID programs diminishes American soft power and geopolitical influence, particularly in regions like South Asia and Southeast Asia, where China is winning more hearts than ever. Such announcement may allow China and Russia to expand their influence through their capacity-building, infrastructure building and outreach drives. Without continued support, key initiatives aimed at building self-reliance and sustainable growth may collapse. This could prolong cycles of poverty and instability in the region. Populations already facing crises—such as those displaced by conflict or natural disasters—are at heightened risk without ongoing support from USAID. Cuts to maternal health programs and childhood immunizations could lead to increased mortality rates among mothers and children in these regions. According to the International Narcotics Control Board’s 2023 report, South Asia is home to about 39% of the world’s opiate users.

 

A breathtaking night view of Kuala Lumpur's skyline featuring the illuminated Petronas Towers.

The agency does a lot in Southeast Asia, a region combatting a host of hitting issues. Last year, the USAID spent about $860 million in the region, helping the nations like Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. The most of the amount was paid for  healthcare, growing the economy, education, and government programmes.

In the Southeast, the agency’s programme is also for support small businesses and farming. This is important for poor countries like Cambodia and Laos. They need help from other countries to keep their economy going. If these programs ceased, more people could get sick and more children remain unskilled and uneducated.   Trump’s worldview is reflected in his policies. Trump’s America is obviously not that of President Kennedy. Nor the momentum of multipolarity is similar to that of the Cold War that hatched the USAID. Civil society across the South Asia, as seen in nation like Sri Lanka, needs to be more proactive in dealing with compelling challenges in the homeland. A nationalistic policy for self-supporting development budget and more comraderies within the fraternity will be trending.  

This is the momentum for the BRICS nations like India, China, Russia, as well as minerals-rich Middle Eastern economies, to step into the funding vacuum left by the US. The limitation of USAID not only jeopardizes immediate humanitarian assistance but further threatens the long-term developmental prospects of several nations in South and South East Asia as well as the rest of the world. However, the USAID remains a tiny share in the US state budget. As the regions grapple with the consequences of reduced aid, it becomes increasingly apparent that such policies can have far-reaching effects that extend well beyond their borders. Addressing these challenges requires a reevaluation of the US foreign aid priorities to ensure that they align with both humanitarian needs as well as strategic interests. Ultimately, the reduction in USAID funding signifies a pivotal moment for BRICS nations and regional partners to assume greater responsibility in the era of multipolarity. 

[ Ayanangsha Maitra is a Journalist and New Delhi based Fellow at COGGS. ]

USAID Cut Widens Multipolarity in South, East Asia?  Read Post »

ASEAN in Addressing Drug Trafficking in the Golden Triangle Region

|

Muhammad Indrawan Jatmika 

Adrian Naufal Rizqullah

Drug trafficking is a significant threat that has garnered substantial attention in Southeast Asia. Classified as a form of transnational crime, drug trafficking poses a severe threat to international security and stability (Anggraini, 2016). The issue of Illicit drug trade has been a long-standing problem in Southeast Asia, making it one of the regions most affected by this global challenge.

Central to this issue is the Golden Triangle, a region recognized as a major hub for drug production and trafficking. The Golden Triangle spans parts of Eastern Myanmar, Northern Thailand, and Western Laos, making it a focal point for the cultivation, production, and distribution of opium on a global scale. During the 1970s and 1980s, this region emerged as the world’s largest opium producer (Anggraini, 2016). The Golden Triangle remains one of the largest narcotics-producing regions globally, contributing approximately 60% of the world’s opium and heroin supply (BNN, 2018). International drug cartels and syndicates, with extensive networks in Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, facilitate the thriving drug trade in this region.

 

 These networks are instrumental in smuggling narcotics into Southeast Asia through the Golden Triangle, further establishing the region not only as a production hub but also as a strategic transit route for drug trafficking (Othman, 2004). Weak border controls in Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos, the countries comprising the Golden Triangle, exacerbate transnational crime. This lack of effective oversight has been exploited by non-state actors, who pose significant threats to regional security. These actors use the Golden Triangle to traffic narcotics to other Southeast Asian nations. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Southeast Asia’s narcotics trade is one of the busiest globally, rivaling the Golden Crescent region (comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran) in the Middle East (Yanuarizki, 2016).

Beyond its role as a trafficking route, the Golden Triangle is a major opium producer and cultivator (Yanuarizki, 2016). Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos are the primary contributors to drug production in Southeast Asia. Local farmers in northern and western Laos extensively cultivate opium, primarily for regional distribution. Due to its strategic location, Thailand often serves as the initial destination for drugs transported from Myanmar and Laos before being distributed to other areas. Beyond opium, the Golden Triangle is also known to produce various narcotics, including methamphetamine, amphetamine, heroin, kratom, and marijuana (Anggraini, 2016). The repercussions of drug trafficking extend beyond the borders of the Golden Triangle, impacting other countries across Southeast Asia. This issue demands the attention of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional organization that has taken an active role in addressing transnational crime, including drug trafficking (Anggraini, 2016). Many Southeast Asian countries are characterized by weak governmental institutions, which contribute to the prevalence of transnational crimes, including drug trafficking. The rapid evolution and increasing scale of the drug trade necessitate immediate and coordinated responses from ASEAN as a regional organization. ASEAN has actively facilitated collaboration among Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos to address these challenges (Aryani & Leksono, 2017). Furthermore, the organization has consistently encouraged its member states to take proactive measures to combat transnational crime and drug trafficking. This study aims to analyze the developments in addressing drug trafficking issues in Southeast Asia, particularly within the Golden Triangle, from 2018 to 2020, with a focus on the role of ASEAN as a regional organization. Specifically, it explores ASEAN’s institutional responses and collaborative frameworks in tackling the drug trade in this region. By examining ASEAN’s work programs and initiatives, this study builds upon prior research to provide a comprehensive understanding of ASEAN’s role as a facilitator and motivator in the fight against drug trafficking in the Golden Triangle.

 

[ An excerpt from COGGS Impact paper, published by COGGS in collaboration with Department of International Relations, UPN “Veteran” Jawa Timur University, Indonesia] 

Authors: 

*Muhammad Indrawan Jatmika, Asisstant Professor, International Relations DepartmentUniversitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur

**Adrian Naufal Rizqullah Student, International Relations Department, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur

ASEAN in Addressing Drug Trafficking in the Golden Triangle Region Read Post »

The Falcon and Bear Braving a Storm: UAE and Russia in the Dawn of Multipolarity

|

 

  • Ayanangsha Maitra

Russia, THE TSAR of diamond mining, and the UAE, where the raw brilliance is honed into luxury, share a warm economic relationship and the pair contribute immensely in the grand design of the  geoeconomics. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s state visit to Qasr Al Shati in Abu Dhabi, following the Munich Security Conference signifies the Emirate’s growing role as a mediator in global diplomacy.  It also shows the trust Abu Dhabi commands from both Moscow and Kyiv in advancing peacemaking efforts.

Moscow’s policy to diversify trade from the West to Asia has benefited the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Trade between Russia and the United Arab Emirates tripled over the last three years, remarked President Vladimir Putin when he hosted UAE ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Moscow in October 2024, followed by a meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence. The bilateral trade between the two burgeoning economies crossed $11.4 billion in 2023, redefining the relations between the two nations.

The UAE has joined the BRICS as a full member in January 2024. Against the backdrop of seismic geo-politics as well as geo-economics shift, several factors have altered the trajectories of Moscow and Abu Dhabi, shaping their destiny. Since the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, the UAE has experienced greater economic success as Moscow has diversified its trade strategy from the West to Asia. In the UAE, Russia exports transport items and IT in addition to the energy. On the other hand, the UAE exports products such as shisha tobacco, broadcasting equipment and selected aviation parts to Russia. The UAE is not only the largest trading partner of Russia but receives about 90 percent of Moscow’s total investment in the gulf region. The UAE supplies butter, machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, and vehicles.

 

 [UAE ruler Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Russia's  President Vladimir Putin. Illustration: COGGS]
[UAE ruler Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Russia’s  President Vladimir Putin. Illustration: COGGS]
With Russia’s diamond sector largely controlled by state-supported Alrosa, the sanctions imposed by the Western nations have made it harder to access traditional markets. The UAE has stepped in as a key intermediary, leveraging its tax-friendly policies and advanced

infrastructure to facilitate trade. The Ministry of Finance of the UAE, has concluded the negotiations for Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement on income and capital with Russia. The UAE and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) have concluded final round of negotiations to form a comprehensive economic partnership agreement to enhance bilateral trade in goods between the UAE and the five members of the EAEU bloc, comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a one-day lightning tour to Abu Dhabi in December 2023 during COP28 climate talks. 

The state visit of UAE ruler Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to Russia in October 2024 warmed up the Moscow-Abu Dhabi relations, which encompass diverse sectors, including energy, trade, space exploration, and humanitarian cooperation. Additionally, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s participation in the 7th Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting for Strategic Dialogue in September 2024, along with his visits to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and engagement with the League of Arab States (LAS), played a significant role in strengthening ties with the Arab states.  The Russia-Arab bonhomie was rekindled in the meeting of the Russia-Islamic World Strategic Vision Group at Kazan Forum 2024 in May.

 

[BRICS KAZAN FORUM 2024 Celebrating Modest Fashion Day, representing Russian and Gulf Models. Courtesy: RIA Media Bank]

 

 

The UAE: A Magnet for Russian Expats

The UAE has emerged as a dream destination for Russians for plethora of factors. The cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi offer  a seamless blend of accessibility, convenience, and an elevated lifestyle at a reasonable cost. With direct flights ferrying between multiple cities, streamlined visa policies, and the ease of securing a Dubai residence permit (Dubai ID) and banking facilities, relocation is convenient. However, securing visas for the US and Europe remains a formidable challenge, placing the UAE as an appealing alternative. Dubai, in particular, promises a sophisticated standard of living, featuring upscale residences, prestigious schools, a dynamic culinary scene, and an exclusive social environment for affluent Russian-speaking expatriates. The presence of a well-established Russian-speaking community—estimated at 100,000 as of 2019, comprising 40,000 Russian nationals and 60,000 individuals from former Soviet states—creates a sense of familiarity and belonging. Additionally, the influx of Russian tourists continues to grow, with flights connecting various Russian regions to key UAE destinations such as Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi.

Economic Relations

Economic ties are one of the key determinants of UAE–Russia relations. The two nations have come forward mostly over the decades from the relations of ecommerce. The UAE is playing a role in facilitating parallel imports into Russia, with a significant increase in exports of electronics, spare parts, and microchips from the Emirates to Russia. However, despite this increase in trade, the UAE is under constant pressure from the West to limit its cooperation with Russia. The financial institutions of the Emirate are exercising caution in their dealings with Russian entities because they are closely followed by US regulators. The UAE was included in the “grey list” of the Financial Action Task Force, prompting increased oversight of cash flows, making it more difficult to transfer assets from Russia or bypass sanctions.

From the late 1990s onward, Moscow has progressively solidified its partnership with the Arab nation, resulting in a marked surge in Russian exports to the Emirates. Concurrently, a mushrooming Russian diaspora has emerged in the urban habitats like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. The Russian community, comprising business professionals, skilled laborers, and entrepreneurs is cajoled by the appealing economic nature and abundant investment opportunities these cities offer.

 

The UAE and the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) established diplomatic ties shortly after the UAE’s formation in December 1971. A USSR delegation visited the UAE in January 1972, acceding to establish diplomatic missions at the ambassador level. Despite the early agreement, the actual establishment of embassies was delayed until November 1985, when Moscow and Abu Dhabi officially announced bilateral relations. The USSR opened its diplomatic mission in March 1986, with the UAE Embassy opening in Moscow in April 1987. The missions provided a significant boost to bilateral ties, particularly in the economic sphere.

Economic Cooperation and Trade

  • Early Financial Agreements: In April 1988, Moscow received a loan of $50 million from the UAE, marking early economic cooperation. In December 1989, the Russian Foreign Bank visited Abu Dhabi to explore additional borrowing opportunities and the participation of UAE financial institutions in issuing Soviet financial credit instruments.
  • Air and Sea Transport: An Air Transport Agreement was signed in 1987. Notably, Aeroflot had an office in Abu Dhabi since 1979. Later in 1988, several Soviet sea carriers inked deals with the UAE company Sharaf Shipping.
  • Trade and Industrial Cooperation: An Agreement on Trade, Economic, and Industrial Cooperation was signed in Moscow in January 1990, further strengthening economic ties.

Trade Relationship

Deliveries of electronic items and spare parts for them from the Emirates to Russia have grown significantly to become the country’s biggest category of exports to Russia, while deliveries of microchips soared 15 times. In the 2022, the UAE sold Russia 158 civilian drones. The bilateral trade between Russia and UAE crossed $11.4 billion (1 trillion rubles)  in 2023.  In 2022, Russia exported $8.07 billion to the UAE, while the UAE exported $2.47 billion to Russia, indicating a significant trade surplus in favour of Russia. Russia’s main exports to the UAE in 2022 were gold ($5.36 billion), diamonds ($1.64 billion), and refined petroleum ($214 million). The UAE’s main exports to Russia in 2022 included broadcasting equipment ($1.4 billion), computers ($244 million), and microphones and headphones ($71.8 million).

Despite the difficulties faced by Russia in the 1990s after the dissolution of the USSR, the warm relations between the two nations were maintained and gradually developed, with rapid growth occurring in the first decade of the 21st century. Since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Dubai has become an increasingly important hub for trade with Russia. This has been aided by Western sanctions on Russian energy products which have led to an exodus of oil and commodity traders from London and Geneva to Dubai.

The UAE-Russia relationship has evolved from its early diplomatic foundations to a significant partnership characterised by robust trade and economic cooperation. The increasing volume of trade, coupled with continuous high-level diplomatic engagement, highlights the importance of this relationship for both nations. The establishment of Dubai as a key trading hub post-2022 further demonstrates the adaptability and growing significance of this bilateral relationship in the current scenario.

[ Rosoboronexport, state-owned defence firm of Russia maintained a business-as-usual composure. Courtesy: Sputnik]
The conflict in Ukraine was a shock to the market. The UAE, as part of OPEC+, has been struggling to bring more investment into oil and gas production. This is a shared challenge within the OPEC+ framework, which includes Russia, and suggests that the countries have a joint mechanism for oil production. The UAE has previously warned of the need for more investment in oil and gas, which was ignored when the world’s attention was focused on renewable energy and environmental issues.

In 2023, Russia exported 902,000 tonnes of agricultural products to the UAE, marking a 2.8-fold increase from the previous year. According to Agroexport, Russia has steadily expanded its wheat shipments to the UAE, with exports surpassing 900,000 tonnes in the 2019/20 agricultural year—accounting for 50% of the UAE’s total wheat imports. Andrei Terekhin, Russia’s trade representative in the UAE, highlighted the Emirate’s market as a promising destination for a diverse range of agricultural products.

 

Several prestigious Russian universities have established a presence in the UAE. Russian companies have showed enormous interest in the UAE across sectors and about 4000 Russian companies are functional in the UAE. Russian enterprises like Rosneft, Metalloinvest, Volga-Dnieper, Kurganmashzavod, Amtel, Stroitransgaz, Metallurgical Pipe Company, Interkomholding, Alrosa, KAMAZ, Lukoil, VTB Capital,  and several  others not just created their footmarks but also earned name as a respected corporation. UAE’s logistics major DP World, signed a strategic cooperation deal with Rosatom State Corporation, to establish an international logistics joint venture (JV) to develop container shipping through the Arctic and operate in the Russian and international markets. The Russia-UAE Working Group for Regional and Investment Cooperation conducts their meeting time to time. The enterprises from the two nations formed Russia-Emirates Business Council in September 2005.

Conclusion:

The Emirate’s prestige, prosperity and tax-friendly policies make it an attractive gateway for businesses looking to engage with Russia, particularly as trade routes and partnerships shift in the current geopolitical landscape. The UAE’s business-friendly approach allows Russian companies, making it a significant bridge for trade and commerce.

The UAE’s warming ties with Russia and intuitive move to be a member of BRICS  a clear move towards supporting multipolarity – while simultaneously maintaining a business diversification strategy. The Emirates’ role in facilitating parallel imports into Russia highlights its function in circumventing Western sanctions and enabling continued trade relations. This is further supported by the increase in exports of electronics, spare parts, and microchips from the UAE to Russia. The UAE provides an excellent opportunity for several other countries to access the Russian market. By establishing itself as a major trading hub, the UAE facilitates the flow of goods and services between various other nations in addition to Russia. The presence of a growing Russian community in the UAE creates a conducive environment for business, further promoting trade and investment. In essence, the UAE’s actions show a dual commitment to both strategic diversification and enabling multipolarity.

[ Ayanangsha Maitra, PhD is a writer and producer at COGGS. He can be contacted via @Ayanangsha  on X or via email : ayan@thegeoeconomics.com . ]

The Falcon and Bear Braving a Storm: UAE and Russia in the Dawn of Multipolarity Read Post »

BRICS: Not Dead, But Thriving

|

Mohammed Saqib

IN HIS RECENT comments, President Donald Trump of the United States of America declared that the BRICS bloc—currently comprising Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates—was created with a “bad purpose” and that it is, in effect, already “dead.” Even more dramatically, he – before assuming his second term threatened a 100% tariff on any sort of  trading activity involving the BRICS nations if they attempted to  de-dollarize commerce.

 

[ Courtesy: TASS News Agency]

President Trump’s remarks on BRICS may appeal to nationalist sentiments. Despite his claims that BRICS is irrelevant or “dead,” the bloc is a formidable global economic force.  The interest of countries to join the bloc makes it more practical and a powerful entity to claim the multipolarity. Representing over 3.24 billion people—more than 40% of the world’s population—BRICS nations wield demographic influence on an unprecedented scale. Economically, the bloc contributes approximately $26.03 trillion to global GDP, accounting for 26% of the world’s total GDP. Their impact on international trade is equally significant, with BRICS countries are responsible for 20% of global exports and 18% of global imports. Beyond these metrics, the New Development Bank (NDB), established by the bloc in 2014, has approved over $33 billion in infrastructure and sustainable development projects. Far from being defunct, the economic weight of BRICS continues to shape the trajectory of regional as well as global development.

Misunderstanding BRICS’ Purpose and Potential

The perception that BRICS was established for a “bad purpose” fails to recognise the bloc’s core objective: providing a collaborative platform for emerging economies to enhance their voice at the global level. It seeks to address and rectify longstanding economic disparities. Initiatives like the New Development Bank (NDB) signify its dedication to promoting sustainable development and addressing infrastructure needs—goals that starkly contrast with any notion of a “bad purpose.” Moreover, rather than being dismissed, BRICS continues to flourish, attracting interest from numerous nations eager to join a framework that fosters multipolarity. The claim that “most people don’t want it” is unfounded and overlooks the increasing demand for a more diversified global financial landscape. Over 30 countries, including Turkey, a NATO member, have applied to join BRICS or its economic bloc.

Threat of a 100% Tariff

Perhaps the most alarming element of Trump’s comments is the threat of imposing a 100% tariff on any BRICS nation’s trading activities if it dared entertain policies aimed at de-dollarizing global commerce. It may sound like rhetoric, but such a move would have far-reaching consequences if implemented. The BRICS nations hold significant value in the age of multipolarity. China, a leading member of the bloc, is a manufacturing titan and the US’s largest trading partner, accounting for approximately $600 billion in bilateral trade in 2024, with critical imports like electronics as well as machinery underpinning American supply chains. Similarly, India is one of the fastest-growing  economies. Consider the examples of other members. India’s burgeoning trade relationship with the US is driven by key sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and services. Brazil, the US’s second-largest trading partner in Latin America, supplies essential commodities like soybeans and crude oil. While trade with Russia has decreased due to sanctions, its energy export capacity remains significant. South Africa offers vital minerals and metals necessary for US manufacturing and technology. A blanket tariff would complicate economic ties and affect bilateral relations.  As a result, American businesses and consumers may have to pay higher costs. Such tariff measures may invite potential retaliatory actions that could ripple across global supply chains and further exacerbate global economic instability.

 President of Russia Vladimir Putin during an expanded meeting of BRICS leaders during the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan. [Photo: Sergey Bobylev ]
De-Dollarization: A Growing Trend

The emphasis on “playing games with the dollar” reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of why certain BRICS members are advocating for de-dollarized trade. These measures are not primarily aimed at undermining the US dollar; rather, they focus on reducing external vulnerabilities to sanctions and market volatility. Diversifying currency use is a pragmatic strategy in an unpredictable global economy, not an antagonistic action deserving of punitive tariffs. The global financial architecture is witnessing a slow shift as BRICS nations pursue the use of other means for international transactions along with the dollar. This movement manifests in three key developments: the increasing adoption of local currency settlements, exemplified by India and Russia’s rupee-ruble oil trade arrangements; the advancement of central bank digital currencies, with China’s digital yuan reaching 260 million users in its pilot phase; and discussions at the 2023 BRICS Summit regarding the creation of a shared currency for inter-BRICS trade. These efforts represent an economic diversification strategy aimed at reducing dollar dependency. At the same time it creates greater financial autonomy among BRICS nations rather than a direct challenge to the dollar’s international role. The trend reflects a broader evolution in global finance, where emerging economies seek to build resilient payment systems that can withstand geopolitical pressures while maintaining stable trade relationships.

Need for a Constructive Engagement

Ultimately, in true Trumpism style, the hyperbolic rhetoric surrounding the state of BRICS appears designed more for political theatrics than for a genuine analysis of global economic strategies. Instead of dismissively threatening an entire coalition of nations, a more productive approach would involve engaging in dialogue and developing mutually beneficial economic frameworks.

The BRICS bloc is an evolving testament to the shifting dynamics of global power. While the United States remains a dominant economic player, its influence is increasingly challenged by a world where trade, technology, and geopolitical alliances are as fluid as they are interconnected. Threats of tariffs and isolation may create temporary pressure, but they are unlikely to dismantle a bloc that is built on shared interests and growing interdependence. Rather than instilling fear through tariffs and empty threats, a future-oriented strategy would recognise the benefits of inclusive dialogue — one that respects multiple voices in the international arena.

The reality is that BRICS is not dead. In fact it’s an evolving bloc that reflects the aspirations of the Global South to have a greater voice in global affairs.

[ Mohammed Saqib is an economist and Convenor of COGGS. ] 

BRICS: Not Dead, But Thriving Read Post »

DeepSeek: A Legacy of Confucian China

|

Atul Aneja

THE STUNNING SUCCESS of the Chinese AI chatbot DeepSeek has left the US-led tech universe shell-shocked, fearful, and demoralised. That is not surprising. The arrogant rulers of the cyber-universe headquartered in such places as the Silicon Valley have long believed in the myth that they have the divine right to lead the  global tech industry. To find young upstarts from lowly Hangzhou shattering the myth that they have been born to command cyber-space in perpetuity, is, indeed, hard to swallow.

But had the tech-titans in the West been humbler and avoided living in a self-created bubble, they would perhaps have by-passed their terrifying deer-in-the-headlights situation. So how did China achieve its Sputnik moment that has delivered such a shattering psychological blow to the  high-browed collective west?

There are at least three underlying drivers that explain why the tireless neo-Confucian techies from China, made such a big splash on the hi-tech canvass by training an advanced AI chatbot at a miserly cost $5.58 million. This has  hugely embarrassed the ruling tech priestly class that has pumped far larger sums to produce, from a user’s perspective, only similar products.

First, clear-eyed leaders of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have diligently painted the big picture, detailing the time-lines for China’s rise, in which developers of AI have a pivotal, clearly defined role. The rise of AI, the key to cutting-edge Industry 4.0 that was already in focus—received a big boost in 2017 during 19th congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). At the end of the congress, which is routinely held every five years, Chinese President Xi Jinping, delivered a seminal  speech. In  his marathon address, which lasted more than three hours,  Xi  laid out China’s grand strategy. From the ornate Great Hall of the People, the Chinese leader declared the country’s two centenary goals.

He unambiguously announced that his country’s first goal would be to eradicate absolute poverty by 2021—the year that marked the centenary of the formation in Shanghai of the CPC. That goal has already been achieved with the doubling in one decade of the Chinese GDP from its 2010 base. The second goal was even more consequential. Xi made it plain that in 2049—the year marking 100 years of the formation of the PRC—China would become a world leader, acing all spheres of  human endeavour. With that the people of the country would realise their “Chinese dream.”

In  order to achieve these jaw-dropping goals, the Chinese had already packed the required feedstock, including AI. During their 14th five-year plan that would end this year, Chinese planners had identified the critical role of  digital economy, focusing on core industries such as  big data, blockchain and AI to propel China’s digital advance.

Regarding AI, the plan focused on developing advanced algorithms, visible in the DeepSeek model,  and their application in industrial manufacturing, fintech and healthcare. It also lasered on integrating AI with quantum computing. This was done with the intent of beefing computational power that was required to solve complex problems quickly. Chinese planners saw a major AI role for establishing smart cities, digital villages, improving public services and living standards of the people.  

Second, the Chinese began their long march to establish a hi-tech culture and eco-system  that was original, innovative, and geared to guarantee success.  Here it is important to grasp the Chinese drill for developing digital technologies, including AI.

In an in insightful article that appeared in the South China Morning Post,  economist Kok How Lee points to three key drivers of China’s ever- growing success.

He points out that  China has leveraged its vast domestic market to achieve economies of scale, leading to inexpensive production of goods,  without compromising quality. Riding on a 1.4 billion population, China has a vast consumer base allowing businesses to scale up production—a situation that other markets will find hard to replicate.

Citing the smartphone industry, Lee spotlights Chinese brands such as Huawei Technologies, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo. These companies focused on meeting the needs of the massive domestic market before expanding globally. “This ability to scale up domestically first provides a critical edge over international counterparts who operate in smaller markets,” Lee observes.

The article further nails China’s “user-centric” approach as a key driver for on-your-feet innovation. It points out that Chinese companies are very sensitive to user feedback, and channel it rapidly into improved products. Copious data on consumer behaviour and preferences drawn from China’s vast market, gives Chinese companies the fire power to innovate and improve products.  

Finally fierce domestic competition in advanced areas, including AI has been driving breakneck innovation across China, taking the world by storm.  For instance, unlike Europe,  cut-throat competition for market share among electric car brands-BYD, Nio, Li Auto and Xpeng –is driving down costs and improving product quality.  

“This relentless drive to outdo competitors has fostered a culture of innovation that permeates China’s tech ecosystem,” says Lee.

Third, the post-Covid situation, marked by sharper geopolitical hostility from the West, coupled with the domestic economic slowdown, significantly driven by sluggishness in traditional economy drivers including real estate and infrastructure, has forced China to seek new motors for economic success, including AI. Recently, China’s leaders exhorted industry heads to focus on the country’s tech sector in the search for new drivers of economic growth. President Xi, in a meeting, himself called for “high-level technological self-reliance and improvement” and “sound development momentum” in 2025—the years when the 14th five-year plan runs its course.

Xi authorised the business chamber All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, to steer the private sector towards greater entrepreneurship and boosting their confidence. In order to power digital innovation, China has chosen Hangzhou, the ground-zero from where DeepSeek took wings, as a key destination of AI advancement. 

Why Hangzhou?

There are several reasons for nailing Hangzhou as an AI hub. First and foremost, Hangzhou has abundant talent pool. The city can leverage several research institutions, including Zhejiang University, which has taken a head-start in AI research since 1978. The city has over 7,000 people working in the AI industry—a talent pool that naturally draws AI investors. Hangzhou has become a digital favourite also because of its tradition of local government support, exemplified by the establishment of the 5G Innovation Park there. Today, it hosts the China Artificial Intelligence Town– a dedicated area within Hangzhou Future Sci-Tech City, focusing  on big data, cloud computing, IoT, and chip design. In fact, Hangzhou has designated four districts – Yuhang, Xiaoshan, Binjiang, and Xihu – as pilot areas for AI development, leveraging their resources and expertise.

Besides, the presence of Ali Baba, the e-commerce giant, has vastly added to Hangzhou’s glamour and allure, majorly reinforcing the city’s AI ecosystem.   Alibaba’s initiatives include  ET Brain, which has several applications in various fields such as  healthcare and fintech.

Unsurprisingly, attracted by its strong AI  infrastructure and digital culture,  Hangzhou, besides DeepSeek, is home to companies like Rongyi.Big, Intellifusion, CloudWalk Technology, and Terminus Technologies. These firms are undertaking cutting edge research to benefit AI applications for e-commerce, video analytics, smart city solutions, and IoT integration. Other digital icons in Hangzhou include robotic dog maker Unitree and Game Science, which has become famous after developing Black Myth: Wukong, an AAA video game.

It is important to understand the Chinese success can be significantly attributed to its strong rootedness to its traditional Confucian work ethic. This includes respect and advocacy for hard work and diligence based on the belief that persistent effort and continuous improvement yield desirable results. Respect for authority and  hierarchy is another strong attribute of the Confucian culture. Distilled at the workplace, it means showing respect to seniors and supervisors.

The Confucian ethic also places a premium on group harmony and cooperation. Teamwork and collaboration to achieve collective goals is of higher value than individual triumphs. Besides life-long learning and self-improvement is encouraged, which means relentless pursuit of knowledge, skill development and professional growth in the workplace.

 

[Atul Aneja is an advisor to COGGS. The article is republished from katehon.com. The views expressed in this article are solely his own.]

 

 

DeepSeek: A Legacy of Confucian China Read Post »

Scroll to Top