Ayanangsha Maitra
In a recent interview with COGGS, Scot Faulkner, a former aide to President Reagan and Chief Administrative Officer at the House of Representatives, provided insightful commentary on the current and potential future direction of American foreign policy, particularly under a returning Trump administration. Faulkner contrasted the US President Donald Trump’s approach, which he characterises as “America First” and somewhat isolationist, with the deeply ideological and strategically consistent approach of Reagan.
Key Foreign Policy Challenges and Trump’s Potential Responses
On Iran and Venezuela: Faulkner believes the Biden administration’s national security team was very weak, creating opportunities for adversaries. He suggests Trump will likely seek to shut down Iran due to its funding of terrorism and focus on reciprocal trade. Faulkner also raised the possibility of India developing internal energy sources like converting “Napa” into fuel to avoid underwriting these regimes. He indicated that energy is a significant driver of foreign policy for both India and the US. Iran and Venezuela are the two countries, nation like India used to heavily rely on oil imports but stopped import due to sanction concerns.
China: Faulkner views China as “Enemy Number One,” aiming for global dominance through economic and cultural means or potentially through military aggression. He suggested Trump might work with industry to bring manufacturing back to the US or out of China through tariff threats.
NATO: Calling himself a “big fan of NATO,” Faulkner acknowledged concerns about it losing its “heart”. He recalled his involvement in expanding NATO, particularly with Baltic countries seeking to cleanse themselves of Soviet oppression. He believes NATO remains crucial as a counterforce to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions to rebuild the Soviet empire. According to him, President Putin, if given the opportunity, would take over Moldova and the Baltics and intimidate Poland. He sees NATO as the primary force to deter such actions, especially if Trump scales back US involvement.
The Global South: Faulkner is critical of the vast sums spent on aid through USAID since its inception in 1962, questioning whether it has led to significant positive change in many recipient countries, often still characterised by dictatorships and left-leaning strongmen. He argues that China has effectively gained influence in Africa and is attempting to do the same in South America by engaging with leaders and oligarchs. The American realpolitik thinker suggests a reassessment of US aid to ensure a better “return on investment,” moving away from ideologically driven projects towards more business-oriented approaches to counter Chinese influence. He cited his experience with the Peace Corps in Malawi as an example of well-run programs that can positively impact individuals and build goodwill.
Domestic Focus
Faulkner indicated that while Trump is bringing a “real strategy,” much of it is “isolationist based” and “America Focus based“. This domestic focus is driven by issues like the southern border, which Faulkner described as a major concern for voters due to the influence of Mexican cartels. He noted Trump’s designation of cartels as terrorist organisations and potential actions like drone strikes in Mexico to address the issue. Faulkner believes Trump’s initial focus will be on making America safe and secure domestically before potentially shifting back to a more outward focus.
Despite the perception of Trump’s unpredictability, Faulkner identified “America First” as a consistent theme. He believes securing the southern border and addressing domestic security issues will be key priorities for Trump’s administration.
Faulkner remarked the “revolving door” phenomenon where bureaucrats and diplomats transition to academia or think tanks after leaving government in the US. While he supports conservative think tanks as a counterbalance, he noted that left-leaning figures often receive lucrative book deals, think tank positions, or media gigs. He further stated that he advised the Trump transition team to pull security clearances from individuals who he believed had acted improperly, as these clearances hold significant financial value. His remarks suggest a significant divergence in foreign policy approaches between President Reagan and a returning President Trump. While Reagan operated within a well-defined ideological framework, Trump’s “America First” agenda prioritises domestic concerns and a more transactional approach to international relations.
