December 2024

Balaji Chandramohan

Central Asia, situated at the crossroads of the Middle East and South Asia, was historically a key battleground in the Great Game between Asia and Europe throughout much of the 19th and 20th centuries. In the 21st century, it has gained significant geostrategic importance, particularly within the Global South.

In 2001, China, Russia, and four Central Asian countries formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a countermeasure to limit Western influence in the region. India and Pakistan joined the SCO in 2017, further expanding its significance.

The SCO has grown in relevance for both Russia and China as their relations with the West have deteriorated. Experts argue that the potential of the SCO cannot be underestimated, despite the existence of other prominent regional and multinational forums such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), the G20, and the G7.

 

Iran’s inclusion as a full member of the SCO will strengthen the organization’s energy portfolio but is likely to provoke anger in Western capitals. As the SCO becomes more aligned against Western-led forums, India may find it increasingly challenging to strike a diplomatic balance between its various global partners.

Nonetheless, India is confident in maintaining an independent foreign policy without aligning exclusively with any one group. How New Delhi manages its diplomacy—particularly its relations with Russia, China, and Pakistan—will influence the future trajectory of the SCO.

To begin with, Russia, India’s longstanding ally, seems supportive of India’s ambition to link South and Central Asia through Iran, bypassing Pakistan. India will also work with Iran to complete this project, which will foster closer economic ties between Central Asia, Moscow, and New Delhi.

This policy suggests that Moscow is prepared to support India’s ambitions in Central Asia, at least diplomatically (though not militarily). Russia’s soft power in Central Asia is increasingly seen as a valuable countermeasure against China’s expanding diplomatic and military influence in the region.

On the other hand, Central Asia is considered China’s western periphery, and Beijing has strategically developed oil and gas pipelines connecting to the region, including routes to Kazakhstan and the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline.

Moscow is aware of China’s growing influence in the Central Asian republics, particularly through the SCO and bilateral agreements in the energy sector.

Furthermore, Afghanistan and Pakistan, both neighboring China and maintaining strong political ties with Beijing, are increasingly attuned to China’s role in mediating conflicts, such as between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as in the Ukraine crisis. Both nations have heightened expectations of China, and the trilateral meeting in Islamabad signaled their growing confidence in China’s diplomatic role.

Notably, Moscow and Beijing have increased their dealings with Kabul, short of formally recognizing the Taliban government, which has led to greater comfort in Central Asia toward aligning with the Global South.

Russia, Central Asian states, and China share a common perception of existential threats posed by terrorism and religious extremism, a longstanding concern of the US. This shared threat has fostered cooperation to prevent the US from establishing basing facilities in the region or allowing the Afghan Resistance (Panjshir) to use Central Asia as a sanctuary for further conflict.

Debating Central Asia’s credentials as part of the Global South offers significant academic value in at least two ways. First, it encourages scholars to revisit and rethink the region’s post-Cold War trajectory.

While Central Asia may be an uneasy fit for the Global South, it provides an appropriate framework to discuss the region’s historical and present-day significance. Viewing Central Asia as part of the Global South can shed new light on the nuances, richness, and conceptual limits of the Global South itself.

The region’s unique geographical position and its historical connections to the Silk Trade Routes have been crucial in shaping Central Asia’s geopolitical role, solidifying its place within the Global South.

These ancient routes, which connected the East and West, facilitated the exchange of people, goods, and ideas between Europe and the Far East, profoundly shaping the region’s cultural, economic, and political landscape, even when it was part of the Soviet Union.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to the independence of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—five Central Asian countries that have made significant strides in political transformation, modernization, and economic growth.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Central Asia

Central Asia has become increasingly significant in global geopolitics, especially due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict. This conflict has attracted the attention of regional and global powers, all seeking to expand their influence in the region, thereby impacting Central Asia’s economic, political, and security dynamics.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis, which began in 2022, has had a profound effect on the economic and political landscape of Central Asian countries. For example, the energy sector has faced significant supply chain disruptions. Additionally, the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries have had a ripple effect, adversely impacting the economies of Central Asian nations that are heavily dependent on Russia.

The withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan created a vacuum in terms of Western influence, which Western countries quickly sought to fill, often overlooking the concept of the Global South.

Conversely, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reignited Western interest in the region. A key moment was the summit in September 2023, where all five Central Asian heads of state met with US President Biden for the first time. This was the first summit-level meeting between the US and Central Asia, symbolizing a renewed engagement.

Regarding India, the past decade has seen significant developments in its relationship with Central Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to all five Central Asian countries in 2015 marked a milestone, reinforcing India’s commitment to the Global South.

India views a stable and integrated Central Asia as part of its “extended neighborhood,” crucial for both security and economic interests.

In January 2022, India hosted the inaugural India-Central Asia Summit, further solidifying political ties. Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar framed this relationship around the “4Cs”—commerce, capacity building, connectivity, and contacts—each of which strengthens India’s engagement with the Global South.

Meanwhile, global geopolitical transformations have sparked renewed interest in the Global South. As the US struggles to maintain its superpower status, China’s expanding economic and political influence and Russia’s challenge to the international order through its invasion of Ukraine have elevated discussions on the Global South’s role in global affairs.

These tensions have sparked debates about the credibility of the Western order and the growing influence of emerging powers. The economic, financial, and industrial development patterns of the Global South raise questions about whether its elites will challenge the existing global capitalist order or seek to revise it by shifting their positions and influence within the system.

Though discussions on the world order and the role of the Global South have been ongoing for decades, China’s assertive ambitions and Russia’s actions in Ukraine have given rise to new narratives about the role of the Global South in geopolitics.

In Europe, Russian aggression has fostered unprecedented unity and highlighted the need to diversify strategic needs in areas such as energy, military, industry, and technology.

Moscow has expressed dissatisfaction over the lack of support from the Global South during the sanctions imposed on Russia. Many countries in the Global South have trust issues with the West and question the likelihood of receiving help from Western powers when needed. As a result, they advocate for neutrality and demonstrate “strategic autonomy.” This situation aligns with Russia’s global ambitions.

It is understood that the US is capitalizing on the geopolitical challenges posed by Russia’s aggression, using them to undermine the credibility of the Global South. By advocating for Russia’s weakening, the US aims to recalibrate its political strategy while strengthening relations with Global South allies.

In this context, the growing attention to the Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions, enhanced engagement with ASEAN countries, India’s push to position itself as the leader of the Global South, and the rise of the Indo-Pacific security agenda all emphasize the participation of the Global South. Similarly, countries in Latin America are gaining increased attention as key players in the Global South, with all major global powers—China, Russia, the EU, India, and the USA—intensifying their focus on this region.

In this environment, Central Asian countries are eager to strengthen their geopolitical position and align more closely with the growing influence of the Global South.

[ Balaji Chandramohan is a Chennai, India based geopolitical analyst and former visiting fellow with Future Directions International, Australia. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of COGGS.]